By
Dr. Lajos F. Szaszdi
*The last revision of this unpublished
article was December 13, 2006.
In the decades that followed the
end of the Second World War, Western Europe constituted the embryonic space in
which democracy and a market economy prospered, largely in the European
Economic Community. This space of
political freedoms and economic development, which extended from west to east
from the Iberian Peninsula to West Germany and Greece, was complemented by a
space of security that was guaranteed by NATO and which in addition extended
from north to south from Norway to Turkey in the Atlantic Alliance’s eastern
limits. The space where democracy and a
common market economy thrived was thus to a great extent preserved by the
security guarantees given by NATO membership.
With the lifting of the Iron Curtain and the collapse of the Soviet
Union, the spaces of democracy and market economy, and of security, have to a
large extent converged and coincided, expanding eastwards and thus growing in
size.
By 2005, there is a common space in
that region known as Europe, based on democracy, a common market economy, and
shared security. This space
geographically constitutes a geopolitical triangle that starting from Cape St.
Vincent in Portugal, extends northwards to the North Cape in Norway and
eastwards to Turkey to its south-easternmost province of Hakkâri. The eastern side of the triangle is linked by
the North Cape and Hakkâri, and includes within its space Ukraine and
Belarus. The space contained by this
geopolitical triangle is the political entity and economic bloc of Europa,
which includes also the British Isles, Cyprus and Malta. Europa is built on two foundations, the
European Union and NATO. The economic
heart of this entity is European-based, but the military muscle preserving
Europa’s security has been mostly American.
Ukraine is an important part of the
space called Europa. Its great human and
economic potentials, and its historic and cultural links with the rest of
Europe warrant Ukraine’s membership in the European Union. The country’s future inclusion into NATO is
justified by its horrific sufferings in the 20th century due to
invasion, to the warfare waged on its soil by foreign armies from the west and
the east, and to the repressions and campaigns of genocide carried out against
Ukrainians by the Bolsheviks and Soviets, and by the III Reich.
The West could benefit with Ukraine
becoming a member of both the EU and NATO in the near term, for such membership
would promote regional security. In this
regard, the integration of Ukraine into the European Union’s common market and
policymaking institutions can help prevent ethnic conflict and contribute to
maintaining inter-ethnic dialogue, thus avoiding the specter of civil war. Ukrainian membership of NATO can bring
stability to the region by dissuading foreign invasion, armed intervention and
infiltration from abroad into the country’s internal affairs.
One should consider Ukraine’s
viability to join the EU and NATO in terms of the progress of reform in the
areas of democracy, market economy, and defense. A successfully democratic and
economically strong Ukraine can be a positive regional influence among the
country’s neighbors. There are dangers for Ukraine’s territorial integrity if
it is left out of Euro-Atlantic institutions. One example of this danger was
the experience suffered by Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina soon after their
declaration of independence. Because these were new states without the
protection given by an international security alliance such as NATO,
Milosevic’s Serbia and the Yugoslav Armed Forces under his command were free to
attack and invade these countries. Belgrade thus had a free hand to actively
support the Serbian nationalist forces inside Croatia and Bosnia that were
opposed to their independence in carrying out a policy of ethnic
cleansing.
It must be pointed out also that
the integration of Ukraine into the EU might induce reform and economic change
in Belarus with the assistance of the Baltic States, already EU members. This can happen by the development of
regional projects that can help break the economic and political isolation of
Minsk. This isolation is believed to
actually be pushing Belarus away from European integration and into an eventual
annexation by Russia, which could damage Moscow’s efforts at reform and
modernization, and become a source of conflict for self-determination, with its
potential consequences in terms of refugees and human suffering.
It is proposed that infrastructure
projects such as building a highway from Odessa through Kiev to Minsk and
finally to Riga can foster trade between the Baltic and Black Sea regions and
stimulate development in poor Belarusian regions alongside the road. Based on the Odessa-Brody oil main, a
pipeline linking Odessa with Riga and passing through Belarus can carry Caspian
Sea oil to the Baltic after being shipped from Georgia to Ukraine. Such
pipeline can provide the involved countries in the project with an alternative
source of oil, thus reducing their dependence on Russian crude and
pipelines.
It is in the national interest of
both the European Union and the U.S. to integrate Ukraine into Euro-Atlantic
structures. Also, the process for
Ukraine’s admission into the EU can accelerate the talks for Turkish
membership. Ukraine’s stability and
security can be ensured by its membership of the EU and NATO, and this in turn
can have a long-term positive influence for Belarus. In this regard, it is important to remember
that both Ukraine and Belarus limit the eastern borderlands of both the EU and
NATO: Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Rumania.
In addition, Ukraine is aspiring to
become a member of both organizations, in which case it will become their
largest easternmost borderland. The
European Union’s process of eastward expansion would promote regional
cooperation in the EU’s eastern borderlands.
NATO’s membership could bring a greater sense of security, which could
safeguard regional stability in NATO’s eastern borderlands and strengthen
business confidence in Ukraine and in the region as well. Kiev’s closer ties to the EU and the U.S. in
the context of Euro-Atlantic structures can help check the specters of
political extremism, radical nationalism, ethnic conflict, and economic
insecurity.
