Saturday, May 10, 2014

What China's Stealth Fighter Developments Mean for America


 
Lajos F. Szaszdi, Ph.D.
 
 
Amidst expressions of jubilation from Chinese onlookers, China’s prototype of its fifth-generation stealth fighter, the Chengdu J-20 (Jianjiji-20 or fighter aircraft 20),1 flew its first known test flight on January 11.2 Earlier in late December the fighter was photographed for the first time during a high-speed taxi test on the airstrip at Chengdu Aircraft Design Institute in the province of Sichuan, to the surprise of the world.3 The flight of the J-20 contradicted Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates’ 2009 statements – and his analysts’ assessments - that China would not have a fifth-generation fighter by 2020, and that by 2025 the Chinese would only have a “handful” of this aircraft while the U.S. would have 1,700 fifth-generation fighters, therefore negating the possibility of a U.S. fighter gap.4 Moreover, the test flight of the J-20 stealth fighter during Mr. Gates’ visit to China may be interpreted as a message to the U.S. of the Chinese military’s growing capabilities.5

 
The J-20 is expected to enter service in 2017-2019.6 Earlier it was reported that the plane would enter service in 2013-2015.7 According to a test pilot reputed as being one of China’s best, it would take no less than three years of flight tests before the J-20 would be certified for service. He added that “after that, at least another year is needed before full production of the plane. Then the Chinese pilots will need to learn how to maneuver this new-generation fighter jet, which will take a certain amount of time.”8 In the opinion of an observer of China’s armed forces, if things go according to plan a full regiment of J-20 could become operational by about 2018.9 A People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) regiment has about 13-15 aircraft, and it can have about 24-30 fighters.10 The previous assessment is confirmed by last year’s testimony before Congress by Wayne Ulman, the “issues manager” on China at the National Air and Space Intelligence Center (NASIC), who said that “[w]e’re anticipating China to have a fifth-generation fighter…operational right around 2018.”11

 
Funding will not be a problem for the procurement of the J-20. In terms of size China has now the second defense budget in the world, officially at $76.3 billion, and it continues to grow. In ten years from 1999 to 2009 the Chinese defense budget grew four times, and a PLA general has asked for defense allocations to be doubled.12 In 2011 China’s defense budget will grow 12.7% to $91.5 billion.13

 
For the purpose of considering what the J-20 represents to our national security interests in the Asia-Pacific region, we will examine here the Chinese aircraft based on the information available in the open sources.    

 

Type of aircraft:

 
The Chengdu J-20 is the prototype of a future fighter and not a technology demonstrator.14 There are reportedly two J-20 prototypes.15 The aircraft is a stealth fifth-generation multirole fighter designed to perform air superiority operations over a contested airspace and strike missions against surface targets simultaneously.16 The aircraft is in the category of the F-22, F-15 and the F-14, a “heavy” twin-engine air superiority fighter as opposed to the “light” single-engine F-35 and F-16. It was probably designed to match the F-22A and the F-35.17 The J-20 is a “long-range, stealthy, high altitude aircraft” with “powerful sensors” to detect enemy aircraft at long distances and engage them with beyond-visual-range (BVR) missiles.18 Thus, one of the J-20’s main objectives would be “to achieve regional air superiority.”19 The Chinese fighter will be also a dogfighter thanks to the maneuverability provided by movable control surfaces like its canards (foreplanes) and the engines’ thrust-vectoring control.20 In addition to conducting long-range strike missions, the J-20 will be able to perform intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) operations.

 
 
Design origins of the J-20:

 
The level of cooperation between Russia and China in the defense sector is significant. According to Tai Ming Cheung, associate research scientist in the Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation of the University of California in San Diego, China’s military aviation sector has benefited from “considerable assistance from Russia,” and that China developed “a close relationship with Russia that has allowed the Chinese aviation industry to gain access to state-of-the-art weapons, and technology and knowledge transfers through off-the-shelf purchases, offsets and license production arrangements.”21

 
Reportedly, “China has been working closely with Russia” since 1990 in the development of its fifth-generation fighter.22 In reference to the J-20, Buck McKeon, Chairman of the House of Representatives Armed Services Committee, revealed: “My understanding is that they built it on information that they received from Russia, from a Russian plane, that they were able to copy.”23 This would not be surprising, as General Liang Guanglie, China’s Minister of Defense, declared in the wake of his recent meeting with the U.S. Defense Secretary that “we can by no means call ourselves an advanced military force” in reference to Chinese military technology. He also stated that “[t]he gap between us and that of advanced countries is at least two to three decades.”24 Moreover, a source from the Russian military aerospace industry that worked on China’s Sukhoi Su-27SK and Su-30MKK, said: “Chinese industry is also behind Russia’s and the rest of the world in almost all critical technologies: jet engines, radar, composite materials and avionics.”25 Nonetheless, according to the Pentagon, “China’s defence industry has benefited from integration with China’s rapidly expanding civilian economy and science and technology sector, particularly elements that have access to foreign technology.”26   

 
According to Jane’s, early in 2001 information from U.S. sources showed that the XXJ (as the J-20 was then designated by the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence) had a design “configuration suggesting some Sukhoi influence.”27 The information from 2001 revealed that the Chinese plane had two engines, “a canard delta configuration… and twin outward-canted fins and rudders.”28 In reference to the J-XX, it has also been stated that the Russian firm Sukhoi “has been reportedly working with Shenyang [aerospace company] in developing the next-generation fighter technology and sub-systems.”29 In addition, it was suggested that with respect to Russia, “the J-XX project may benefit from its technologies in two particular areas: thrust vectoring and stealth design.” It was also proposed that the Chinese may “seek potential partners from Russia…to co-develop avionics and weapon suites” for their fifth-generation fighter, known in China as the fourth-generation fighter.30

 
The rear of the J-20 and the shape of the plane with its delta wings and canards seem to have been influenced by the Russian Mikoyan Project 1.44 fifth-generation fighter technology demonstrator of the 1990s,31 with the difference that the J-20 has a stealth design and the MiG aircraft did not. There is in addition a resemblance between the J-20 and the MiG Project 1.44 when the top views of the two aircraft designs are compared.32 According to ARMS-TASS, “Chinese developers took a great deal of borrowing from the old project of the Russian fighter of fifth-generation MiG-1.44.”33

 
The J-20 could have been influenced by the “blended wing/body design” of Sukhoi’s S-37 (Su-47) 1990s fifth-generation fighter technology demonstrator,34 and also of the PAK FA. From the PAK FA also the J-20 seems to borrow “all-moving, out-canted tailfins.”35 Although it is too early to tell, the seemingly very smooth finish of the J-20’s surface suggests the black-painted Su-47 could have influenced too the Chinese aircraft in the use of “large skin panels,” reducing the number of surface panel fasteners and thus improving the plane’s aerodynamics while reducing its weight and radar cross-section (RCS).36 The J-20 canard delta configuration could have also been influenced by the Sukhoi Su-37 single-engined multirole fighter-bomber project (not to be confused with the Flanker version with thrust-vectoring control).37 There is also a resemblance between the J-20 and the Su-37 fighter-bomber project’s delta wings when comparing the design of their wings leading edges.38  

 
The design of Yakovlev’s proposed fifth-generation fighter could have influenced too the J-20. The Soviet-era project was a canard delta wing design with “outwardly canted twin fins,” and angled cockpit canopy, “side intakes placed beneath the canards” and a “forward fuselage with sharp chines…reminiscent of the Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor.”39 These design features are also seen in the J-20. The Yakovlev design shared in common with the Mikoyan Project 1.44 and the Sukhoi Su-47 “the twin-tailed, canard arrangement.”40 The Yakovlev project shared with Mikoyan’s Project 1.44 and the single-engine Su-37 fighter-bomber project the canard delta wing design. An indication of China’s relationship with Yakovlev may be seen in the reports that it obtained from Russia the advanced engine AMNTK Soyuz R79V-300 turbofan with “triply-redundant” FADEC (full authority digital engine control), which was designed for the Yakovlev Yak-41M (Yak-141) V/STOL (vertical and/or short take-off and landing) fighter.41

 
China’s J-20 fighter may be a “copy” of the Russian PAK FA not in terms of its design and external appearance but with regard to its systems, like propulsion, sensors, avionics, computers and stealth technologies, in which both aircraft would share similar capabilities. If this theory is correct, it could mean also that the Russian fifth-generation fighter project has been funded to a certain degree by China, which has fabulous amounts of financial resources at its disposal. This would not be surprising, in light of Russia and China’s growing strategic partnership.42 This close level of cooperation has been seen in the large size of Russian arms exports to China, Moscow’s largest foreign customer of Flanker fighters.43 Russia has also previously helped China develop advanced aerospace weapons systems. For example, the Chinese fighter Chengdu FC-1 (known in Pakistan as the JF-17) apparently is based on the design of the MiG-33, a proposed Soviet single-engine version of the MiG-29.44 Thus, it was reported that the Russian company “RSK MiG was actively involved in the design process” of the FC-1 fighter.45 In addition, China appears to be working on its next generation heavy bomber, the H-9, which reportedly is “a new stealthy bomber being developed in cooperation with Russia.”46

 
The Chengdu Aircraft Corporation appears to be the leading company developing the J-20, with the Shenyang Aircraft Corporation being subcontractor in the project.47 As with the development of China’s PL-12 beyond-visual-range (BVR) air-to-air missile, Russia could be supplying for the J-20 program the design of systems for the Chinese to produce (technology transfer), and be providing components and off-the-shelf systems (engines for example, if China opts for a Russian powerplant for the J-20 like in the cases of its FC-1 and J-10 fighters).48 Thus, Russian systems and technologies supplied to China for the J-20 may be similar to those in the PAK FA.

 
Another example of close cooperation between Russia and China in the development of weapon systems for the Chinese is that of the S-400 SAM system. It is the latest Russian long-range air defense missile system, capable of intercepting also stealth aircraft, cruise missiles and intermediate-range ballistic missiles. According to the Russian state news agency ITAR-TASS, “[a] simplified version of the S-400, designated the HQ-19, was developed jointly with China. China provided the majority of the funding for development.”49 In retrospect, Russia hoped back in the 1990s that its defense exports to China would help inject much needed funding into its advanced weapons research and development (R&D) programs.50 Based on the evidence available of Sino-Russian cooperation in the area of defense, it would appear that China continues to fund key high technology programs of the Russian military-industrial sector for the benefit of both the PLA and the Russian Armed Forces.


By helping China build its heavy, twin-engine fifth-generation fighter, Russia would ensure Beijing would not feel “left out” as Moscow helps India acquire its future fifth-generation fighter. As in the case of the Su-27/Su-30M Flanker, Russia, India and China may share common systems and technologies in their future fifth-generation fighters through a common Russian denominator. It would appear that the J-20 is a fighter made in China with Russian assistance using elements of Russian designs, and that it may be borrowing the technologies and systems of the Russian fifth-generation fighter. A member of the Russian aerospace industrial sector said of the J-20: “When you see it…you will realize that at least half of this aeroplane is of Russian design. There is practically no other place that they could have come up with a planform for a stealthy or blended body design in – what is even for them – such a short period of time.”51 According to another Russian expert opinion, the J-20’s design shows “pieces of several different aeroplanes seen in its planform – the Lockheed YF-22, the Northrop YF-23, the Mikoyan MFI project 1.42/1.44 and the Sukhoi S-37/Su-47…. It is not a direct imitation or something else, like the Shenyang J-11 that is copied from the …Su-27,…so, at least as the Chinese define it, this qualifies the aircraft as an ‘indigenous’ design.”52   

 
As a Russian commentator wrote, “the J-20 is not simply a copy of a Russian design. Rather China has tried to build a completely new aircraft based on the technology and knowledge it has gained during its years of cooperation with Russia.”53 This would not prevent China from obtaining off-the-shelf systems from Russia, like for example engines and radars for the J-20. That close cooperation continues to this day and it will remain so while Russia is the main outside supplier to China of military technology and as long as it maintains its technological edge over Chinese-made weapon systems.

 
The length of the J-20 is a matter of discussion, since China has not released yet official dimensions of the plane. According to a leading U.S. defense corporation, the J-20 has a length of 18.9 meters and a wing span of 12.2 meters, compared to the F-22A’s length of 18.9 meters and a span of 13.6 meters. When the two aircraft are compared, however, it is apparent that the J-20 has a longer fuselage. An analysis of a photograph conducted by the authors, comparing the approximate dimensions of a small truck (5,995 mm) parked besides the J-20 prototype, shows the aircraft has a length of approximately 19.8 meters, excluding the nose probe.54 The Russian ARMS-TASS state news agency provided the following measurements for the J-20: 22 meters of length with the nose probe, 13 meters of wing span, and a height of 2.9 meters from the top of the canopy to the ground. Without the nose probe we have calculated an overall length of approximately 20.4 meters.55 In comparison, the overall length without nose probe of the Russian-made Su-30MKK and Su-27SK (J-11) of the Chinese PLAAF is 21.94 meters with a wing span of 14.7 meters.56 Also in contrast, the PAK FA has a length of 22 meters and a wing span of 14.8 meters,57 the Su-47 technology demonstrator had an overall length of 22.6 meters,58 the Mikoyan Project 1.44 technology demonstrator had an overall length of 22.83 meters,59 and the U.S. F-111 bomber had a length of 22.4 meters.60


The J-20 has clearly elements seen in the design of the F-22, which has also influenced the Chinese fighter’s stealthy design including planform alignment, the “continuous curves” on the upper surface of the plane to scatter radar waves, its “frameless bubble canopy,” “low-height triangle appearance from the front,” the shaped nose designed for the use of AESA radar, the “sharp chine line around forward fuselage,” and the fact that the wings smoothly blend with the fuselage.61 The J-20 also borrows from the F-35 the Diverterless Supersonic Inlet (DSI) design in the air inlets.62 The location of the possible internal weapon compartments (a main weapon bay between the front and rear landing gears and possibly two forward side compartments for short-range air-to-air missiles) are also borrowed from the F-22.

 
Before the world saw the first pictures of the J-20 last December, China had other initial stealth fighter projects. The J-12 being one of them, it was also identified as the “‘J-XX’ or ‘XX-J’” and it was described as having “a crew of two,…anticipated to be in the same class as the American Lockheed Martin F-22A Raptor, and probably designed with significant Russian technical assistance.”63 It was also reported that the Chengdu and Shenyang aircraft companies were working together in developing the J-XX, and that this fighter would be propelled by the next generation “WS-15 afterburning turbofan.”64 The J-XX or XX-J would in fact be the J-20. Another project was the J-13, a drawing of which showed “a cross between the Su-27/J-11 and the F22A, combining the former type’s nose, cockpit, wings and dorsal airbrake with the latter’s lozenge-shaped air intakes and trapezoidal fins.”65

 
The J-14 was another fifth-generation fighter project with a “canard-delta design.” Images that appeared in the Internet showed initially a “twin-engined stealthy aircraft bearing a striking resemblance to the Lockheed Martin F-22A Raptor but featuring canards in addition to (or instead of) the usual tailplanes.”66 Other images of the J-14 that appeared afterwards revealed “a large canard-delta fighter strongly resembling the Russian Mikoyan MiG MFI (Project 1.44) fifth-generation fighter demonstrator but featuring a diverterless supersonic inlet and F-22 style lateral weapons bay. Still other pictures show a broadly similar aircraft with twin lateral DSI intakes.”67  

 
Before 2011 the fighter was described as having “a tail-first layout [canards] with cropped-delta wings, twin canted vertical tails, large swept canards and two engines breathing through lateral DSI intakes.” Although unconfirmed, the J-20 label has been used to designate the J-14 stealth fighter.68 The test flight of the J-20 in 2011 should not come as a surprise, since it was already reported that the plane was “expected to fly by 2012.”69 It is apparent with the information available to the public that China has had for some time a complex program to develop a stealth, fifth-generation fighter. In retrospect, it is thus surprising that the U.S. government with all of its intelligence resources claimed back in 2009 that China would not have a fifth-generation fighter by 2020.

 
Back in 2009 it was reported that computer hackers believed to have operated from China from at least 2007 to 2008 were able to penetrate Pentagon computers linked to the Internet and steal “several terabytes of data related to design and electronic systems” of the F-35.70 If they were from China, it is probable that the computer hackers were part of a Chinese intelligence operation, and that information subtracted from the Pentagon on Lockheed Martin’s F-35 might have ended up being used in the development of China’s stealth fighter.

 
The Internet penetrations of the Pentagon computers would have been part of what was called the “advanced persistent threat (APT).” This consisted of a series of continued cyber attacks, first detected in 2006 and largely originating from China, against the U.S. defense industrial sector.71 Thus, in the words of Bill Sweetman: “Between 2009 and early 2010, Lockheed Martin found that ‘six to eight companies’ among its subcontractors ‘had been totally compromised—e-mails, their networks, everything,’ according to Chief Information Security Officer Anne Mullins.”72

 
Also, according to the chief of staff of the Croatian military during the 1999 Kosovo Crisis, “Chinese agents” were buying from farmers fragments and picking up pieces from the F-117 stealth bomber shot-down down over Serbia during Operation Allied Force. According to Croatia’s former military chief of staff, “we believe the Chinese used those materials to gain an insight into secret stealth technologies… and to reverse-engineer them.”73 It would have been of particular interest for China to gain knowledge of the radar absorbent material (RAM), the aircraft’s radar absorbent structure (RAS) - the internal structure designed not to reflect radar - and the special radar stealth coating of the downed Nighthawk. The information gained may have been then employed in the J-20 program.74 In addition, China could have used in the development of the J-20 the secrets illegally sold to it by the U.S. engineer Noshir Gowadia, who participated in the design of the B-2 stealth strategic bomber’s propulsion system. Reportedly, the information supplied by the Indian-born engineer from 2003 to 2005 helped the Chinese in developing a stealthy cruise missile.75      

 
The unrefueled maximum combat range of the J-20 at height would not be less than 3,000 km, the internal fuel combat range of the Su-30MKK.76 The maximum range of the J-20 could be that of the Chinese twin-engine JH-7 strike aircraft, which has a combat radius of 1,650 km and thus a combat range of 3,300 km.77 Yet the range of the J-20 may even be around 3,680 km, the reported maximum range of the Su-27SK used by China.78 This Russian fighter was exported to China and is known there as the J-11, from which the Chinese produced the improved version J-11B. In order to reach and operate for an extended period over the Pacific Ocean’s First Island Chain and surrounding seas, 1,000 nautical miles (1,852 km) from mainland China,79 the J-20 would probably require air refueling on the way back to base. It is to be expected that the J-20 will have in-flight refueling capability to extend its operational range even further up to the Second Island Chain.80

 
Chengdu is likely to produce a two-seat bomber version of the J-2081 like the FB-22, the proposed but now shelved strike version of the F-22A.82 Such variant would probably have larger wings to increase the amount of internal fuel carried to extend the range of the J-20 bomber to around 4,000 km like the Su-34, the dedicated strike version of the Su-27.83 

 

A further design consideration:

 
According to Vladimir Karnozov and with regard to the J-20, “the center of gravity [of an aircraft] must be somewhere 25-35% of the wing’s MAC [mean aerodynamic chord]…. But the Chinese airplane appears to have a center of gravity position somewhere at MAC’s edge. It is fairly strange for a maneuverable fighter, since balancing of the aerodynamic forces and the gravity will require relatively high deflection of the control surfaces – canards in the J-20’s case.”84 The mean aerodynamic chord “is used as reference length…. of particular importance in [aircraft] stability considerations.”85 Karnozov added that the Chinese “positioned the canards fairly close to the center of gravity position, and thus sacrificed their effectiveness at landing for some other purposes.”86     

 
The reasons for the peculiar design of the J-20 can be understood if one considers that the fighter’s designers wanted a fifth-generation fighter with a large internal weapon bay to carry in a stealthy fashion missiles and bombs. The J-20 was designed around its main internal weapon bay, and that meant designing the fighter as a bomber. According to John P. Fielding, “most dedicated bomber aircraft have an internal weapon bay and its location dominates each bomber’s configuration. The prime consideration is the location of the weapon load, which must be disposed on or about the centre of gravity. Thus unless an unusual wing arrangement, such as a canard, is used the wing structure intersects the fuselage in the region of the weapon bay. The wing must therefore have a mid or high location…. but the need to make maximum use of fuselage volume for equipment or fuel” makes “a high wing” the best design option “as this can be built across the top of the fuselage.”87 This has been the case with the design of the J-20.

 
Like the 1987 concept of a supersonic stealth bomber, designed to cruise at high altitude at Mach 1.6, the J-20 has a swept delta wing that affords “good supersonic wave drag.”88 The design of the J-20 has been described as “optimized” for sustained supersonic speeds in the region of Mach 1.6, like during supercruise.89

 
Karnozov believes the J-20 is “a missile launching platform” primarily designed to attack enemy warships, although he adds that the Chinese fighter “may prove a good interceptor, - very possibly.”90 Being designed around its missile bay, the J-20 is a missile platform intended as a multirole fighter meant to carry out interception and air strike operations. It will not only engage enemy aircraft with beyond visual range air-to-air missiles at stand-off ranges, but it will be capable also of carrying out dogfights. Indeed, the J-20’s canards were not meant just for “low-speed take-off and landing performance,” as in the case of the 1987 supersonic stealth bomber design or the Tupolev Tu-144 supersonic airliner,91 the Soviet equivalent of the Concorde.

 
The J-20’s moving canards are to be used in combination with the moving canted vertical control surfaces and the tri-dimensional thrust vectoring nozzles of its engines for supermaneuverability in close air combat. In addition, the J-20 pilots will seek the upper hand in a dogfight by using high off-boresight, lock-on before or after launch short-range air-to-air missiles. Without a doubt, the Chinese fifth-generation fighter will be able also to conduct strikes against surface targets, including enemy warships.

 
Lieutenant General David A. Deptula, who recently retired as the U.S. Air Force’s Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance, declared that if the Chinese manage to master successfully AESA radar, engine and stealth technologies in the J-20, it “may turn out to be a very, very formidable aircraft.”92 In reference to the J-20, according to a statement from the U.S. Navy’s Deputy Chief of Naval Operations for Information Dominance, the Chinese “have indicated their intent to design a new generation of technologies/subsystems (such as radar, engines and weapons).”93

 

Weapons:

 
The main weapon bay of the J-20, which would be located between the forward and rear landing gears, has an estimated length of about 4 meters, similar to the F-22A, and a calculated width of 2.2 meters.94 The J-20 would carry inside of its main weapon compartment the Chinese beyond- visual-range (BVR) air-to-air missile, the PL-12 (SD-10 being its export term), which has a length of 3.85 meters, larger than the 3.65 meter length of the U.S. AMRAAM BVR air-to-air missile that arms the F-22A.95 Based on what appears to be the outline of the plane in a flight control panel that could be an earlier cockpit design of the J-20, the fighter may at least carry in its main weapon bay four PL-12 BVR missiles with folded control surfaces, each missile having a diameter of 203 mm.96 In contrast, the F-22A can carry in its main weapon bay six AMRAAM missiles, each with a diameter of 178 mm.97 The J-20’s main weapon compartment would be able to carry the latest generation Chinese wider-body, longer-range ramjet BVR missile, probably similar in performance to the Russian ramjet R-77M-PD missile.98

 
The PL-12 BVR missile has an effective range of 70 km, and it possesses a dual-mode active and passive radar seeker. According to Hewson, the PL-12 (identified as the SD-10A) might be the first air-to-air missile to become operational with a dual mode seeker.99 In the passive mode the missile seeker is guided by the emissions of an aircraft’s radar and electronic countermeasures.100 It is noteworthy that Russia has developed the R-77M BVR missile, also fitted with dual active/passive seeker modes.101 Officials from the Russian manufacturer of missile radar seekers, AGAT, described the range in which a BVR missile seeker in passive mode can lock-on to an enemy fighter’s radar as being 200km, while 20 km is the range of the active radar seeker.102

 
Russian assistance in the development of the PL-12 missile dual seeker is suspected, as Hewson explains: “In the past, Russian sources have given Jane’s detailed account of the assistance supplied by Russian design bureaus in the development of the SD-10.” An official from the Chinese manufacturer of the missile suggested this kind of support by saying: “We…have the capability to make the seekers ourselves, but obviously we want it to be the best it possibly can,” and he acknowledged that the missile needed components that were obtained from abroad.103 Moreover, Hewson wrote with regard to the Russian company’s active/passive missile seekers that “[s]enior AGAT officials have remained vague when Jane’s asked who paid for their latest seeker development programmes, noting only that there is no Russian application and no Russian state support for them.”104 It would not be far-fetched to suggest that China is behind the funding of the AGAT dual-mode seekers to use them in its missiles, like the PL-12 (SD-10A). Hence, the development of the PL-12 is yet another example of the close level of cooperation between Russia and China in developing Chinese weapon systems, which may reflect the type of Russian involvement in the development of the J-20.

 
A 2010 illustration that has been circulating in Chinese websites but which has not received official sanction, shows several Chinese air-to-air missiles that include operational weapons.105 Some of the missiles depicted do not exist officially, like the PL-12B, which can actually be the aforesaid SD-10A missile and which possesses a range of ‘more than 70 km.’106 Another thus far unknown missile is the PL-12C, which appears to have been designed to fit the internal weapons bay of the J-20 and which is thought to have advanced “electronic counter-countermeasures.”107 It is probable the PL-12C BVR missile would have also a dual active/passive seeker head, and that it may be designed to defeat the latest electronic countermeasures of U.S. aircraft. Other beyond visual range missile shown is the PL-12D ramjet missile.108 Indeed, there was already the belief that a Chinese ramjet BVR missile was under development, possibly a ramjet version of the PL-12 missile.109 The unofficial Internet diagram of the Chinese air-to-air missile appears to confirm this. If it is real, the ramjet PL-12D may have a range similar to the Russian ramjet R-77M-PD missile, of more than 100 km. The Russian ramjet missile is reported to be able to cover 100 km in one minute.110 Another weapon that appears in the Internet illustration is the bigger and ramjet-powered PL-21,111 which if it exists, it could possibly be a very long-range BVR missile, perhaps with a range of over 200 km. Due to its apparent larger size the PL-21 may have to be carried externally.

 
The J-20 may carry also in external mounts very long-range air-to-air missiles like the Russian R-37 (diameter: 380 mm; length: 4.15 meters) with a range of about 250 km.112 Another candidate is the new Russian izdeliye 810, with an effective range of 345-400 km and designed to be carried internally by the Russian fifth-generation fighter.113 These missiles, like the unconfirmed Chinese PL-21, would be used to shoot down value air targets like E-3 AWACS, E-8 J-STARS and RC-135 Rivet Joint SIGINT (signals intelligence) aircraft, the new E-10A “airborne multisensor command and control system” – also essential for network-centric warfare,  air tankers, P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, B-2, B-1 and B-52 strategic bombers, the future YAL-1 Airborne Laser (ABL) – of which Japan may be a customer, and transport planes.114

 
Like the F-22, which can be armed with the GBU-39/B Small Diameter Bomb, the J-20 may carry also precision guided bombs like the compact 100 kg and 50 kg LS-6 bombs or the 100 kg FT-5 bomb.115 The J-20 may be able to carry in the main internal weapon bay two 500 kg or 250 kg LS-6 satellite/INS guided bombs (if fitted with folding tailplanes), similar to the U.S. JDAM, or two 500 kg LT-3 laser satellite/INS guided bombs.116 However, it may carry two 500 kg guided bombs internally in place of the 4 PL-12 BVR air-to-air missiles. The bombs can use U.S. GPS and Russian GLONASS satellite navigation, and will be able to use the Chinese second-generation Beidou 2 satellite navigation system, also known as “Compass.”117 Chinese precision-guided bombs may also be able to employ the future the European Union’s Galileo satellite navigation system once it provides global coverage.

 
Guided air-to-surface strike weapons that the J-20 may be able to carry internally are the Russian Kh-29 (China received at least 2,000 for its Su-30MKK) air-to-surface missile, and anti-ship missiles such as the Chinese C-704, and two C-701 missiles if fitted with folding wings.118 China is developing a new ramjet supersonic anti-ship missile, identified as the YJ-12, capable of speeds of “well in excess” of Mach 2. It is believed this weapon could serve the basis for a land-attack, suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD) missile.119 The YJ-12 and land-attack variants would probably have to be carried externally due to their longer length.120 However, according to Bill Sweetman, “Chinese engineers at the Zhuhai air show in November [2010] disclosed that newly developed air-to-ground weapons are now required to be compatible with the J-20.”121 This means that the new weapons will be designed to fit inside the fighter’s main weapon bay.

 
The J-20 may also have two smaller missile compartments on the forward side of the fuselage between the forward and rear landing gears to carry internally in each a short-range air-to-air missile.122 This may be the PL-9C missile, an improved version of this weapon or a new generation short-range air-to-air missile with folded control surfaces.123       The new missile could be the rumored PL-10 infrared short-range air-to-air missile.124 The J-20 may carry internally a cannon which could be a 23 mm weapon like that fitted to the J-10 or a 30 mm cannon like in the Su-30MKK.125 More advanced versions of the J-20 may include “[d]irected-energy weapons using high power microwaves, radio frequency pulses or lasers…to attack sensors and communications.”126

 
The Chinese fighter could also carry missiles and bombs in two underwing pylons per wing,127 including possibly two air-to-air missiles per pylon like the F-22 when radar stealth would not be as important once air superiority would have been achieved.128 Due to its high “ground clearance,” the J-20 will be able to carry externally heavy weapons like one Russian Kh-41 Moskit supersonic anti-ship missile.129 The Kh-41 is armed with a 300 kg warhead, it has a range of 250 km, a cruising speed of Mach 3, and a sea-skimming speed of Mach 2.1 at 7.1 meters over the water. The PLA Navy has the 3M80 Moskit, the ship-launched version of the missile arming its four Russian-built Sovremenny class guided-missile destroyers.130    

 
Talking about the J-20, Hong Yuan, the “general secretary of the Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation Studies,” part of China’s Academy of Social Sciences, mentioned the possibility that the new fighter could be armed with ASAT (anti-satellite) missiles, a suggestion repeated by Lt. General Deptula.131 If that would be the case, an ASAT missile would be carried externally.132 As Lt. General Deptula suggested, the J-20 will be able to operate at significantly high altitudes as the F-22.133 If the fighter would perform ASAT missions it will target low earth orbit satellites.

 
The J-20 would target U.S. satellites as part of the “PLA’s doctrine of ‘pressure point warfare’” of conducting in a quick attack a disabling blow against an enemy in the traditional conventional theaters of air, land and sea as well as in space and cyberspace. According to Alexander Neill of the Royal United Services Institute, “ASAT weapons are part of a new genre of ‘assassin’s mace’ or surprise weapons aimed at the Pentagon’s Achilles Heel in space and cyberspace.”134

 
 
Radar stealth:

 
As described above, the plane has a stealthy design, including planform alignment, the “low-height triangle appearance” of the frontal aspect of the aircraft and the “continuous curves” on the upper surface of the fighter.135 The Chinese prototype has also serrated edges in selected parts to scatter radar waves, like in the F-117A, the F-22 and the F-35.136 The J-20 prototype looks more like a finished product in terms of its overall surfaces and it possesses a stealthier design, when compared to the Russian T-50 prototype.137

 
The J-20 will use radar absorbent material (RAM) and special coatings, and radar absorbent structure (RAS) in its construction. The Chinese have experience with the use of RAM, like when early in 1999 they conducted trials using “Xikai SF18 radar-absorbent material” to cover parts of the J-8B multirole fighter,138 More recently, the radar cross-section (RCS) of the Su-27SK, which is 15 square meters, was reduced in the Chinese-made improved version of the Flanker, the J-11B, to under 5 square meters and perhaps even down to 3 square meters through the use of RAM and “radar wave shields in the air intake ducts.”139 The Russian Su-27SK fighter was assembled in China under license and is serving in the PLAAF as the J-11. The J-20 also has S-shaped ducts behind the engine nozzles to mask from radar the turbine blades of the engine.140

 
RAM may also be used on the leading edges of the movable canards and these would be positioned during flight at an angle with the lowest possible radar cross-section, like in the case of the Eurofighter Typhoon.141 Moreover, design measures have been taken to reduce the radar cross-section of the J-20’s canards, including the planform alignment of the angles of the leading edges of the canards and the delta wings.142

 
In addition to incorporating passive low observable (LO) technologies through a stealthy aircraft design and the use of radar absorbent materials and structure, the J-20 may incorporate also an active stealth system. Since Russia might be assisting China in the development of the J-20, the Chengdu fighter could be equipped with a stealthogenic system similar to the one equipping Russia’s fifth-generation fighter, the PAK FA.143 This active stealth system, a cold plasma anti-radar cloaking device, generates through special generators a cloud of plasma surrounding the plane that absorbs a radar wave, which also “tends to pass around [the] plasma cloud” as if there is no aircraft present.144 An aircraft that would use this active stealth system could have a more sound aerodynamic design – making it a better flying and more maneuverable plane - not held hostage by the demands imposed on aerodynamics by an aircraft’s stealth design requirements.145 Thus, equipped with a stealthogenic system the J-20 can have control surfaces such as canards without concern that these would increase the radar cross-section of the aircraft. 

 
The stealthogenic system would reduce the radar cross-section of the aircraft “a hundred times.” Reportedly by 1999 Russian first generation and second generation stealthogenic systems have already been developed, with work on a third generation system well advanced. It was suggested back then that development of a third generation stealthogenic system would have allowed the export of the first and second generation systems. Moreover, the second generation Russian plasma cloaking device is “capable of not only decreasing reflected signal and changing its wavelength, but also producing some false signals.” It was also reported that the Russian stealthogenic systems weighted around 100 kg “and power consumption ranges from kilowatts to tens of kilowatts.”146 It is probable that by now Russia has completed the development of a third generation stealthogenic system, and that it may be working on a fourth generation system for the PAK FA. Due to the close level of Sino-Russian cooperation in the defense sector, the J-20 could be equipped with a plasma cloaking device. Already there are reportedly numerous unconfirmed assertions in Chinese Internet sites that the canard-fitted J-10B fighter is equipped with “plasma stealth.”147

 
Instead of a stealthogenic system, the J-20 could have an active cancellation system to reduce the aircraft’s radar cross-section. In the active cancellation system “the incoming…radar wave is sampled by a receiving antenna. Having predicted the aircraft’s reflectivity at this frequency and angle, the avionics create and transmit a false echo (mauve), a signal designed to cancel out the genuine reflection…from the aircraft’s skin.”148 Hence, the active cancellation system would detect the enemy radar wave reaching the J-20 and generate an equivalent electromagnetic wave out of phase with that of the illuminating radar to cancel it out.

 
By 1999 it was believed that active cancellation systems equipped the USAF B-2 strategic bomber and the French Rafale fighter. By then the technology was mature enough for it to be equipping missiles made in France to make them stealthy, after it was stated publicly in 1999 that missiles developed by Matra BAe Dynamics - now MBDA Missile Systems - had “active systems” to reduce the weapons’ radar cross-section.149 There is the question of whether Noshir Gowadia, the engineer convicted for selling B-2 bomber secrets to China, could have supplied the Chinese the technology of an active cancellation system used in the B-2 bomber, an act that enabled the Chinese to make a stealthy cruise missile.150 Incidentally, working “in close co-operation” China helped Pakistan develop the Hatf 7 Babur cruise missile.151 Reportedly, Pakistan’s nuclear-capable Hatf 7 Babur cruise missiles “use the ‘stealth’ technology of low detectability.”152 If China has fitted its stealthy cruise missile with an active cancellation system, it could also equip its Flanker fleet and its new J-10 fighters with it or install in them a plasma cloaking device, making the fourth-generation fighters stealthy.153 

 
An active cancellation system could also be used not only in the J-20 but also in the Russian PAK FA fifth-generation fighter. The technology requires “complex signal processing equipment whose software contained detailed information on the aircraft’s radar reflectivity at a wide range of angles and frequencies [that] would have to predict how the incoming wave would reflect, [to] then create and transmit a suitable cancellation signal.”154 The PAK FA’s “electronic pilot” computer system155 may have the processing power to conduct the sort of operations required by an active cancellation system. In this regard, it is feasible that the PAK FA’s computer system or one derived from it may be used in the J-20.    

 
To sum up, the J-20 would not need to have an all-aspect stealthy design as accomplished as that of the F-22 to greatly reduce its radar-cross section to the level of a U.S. fifth-generation fighter. If the J-20 is equipped with active stealth technology such as a stealthogenic system or an active cancellation system, the Chinese aircraft may become as stealthy as the Raptor or as the F-35. Analysts and planners should take this into account when assessing the level of stealth of the J-20.

 

Radar and avionics:

 
It is expected that the J-20 will ultimately be equipped with an active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar, which may be “possibly the Type 1475/KLJ5.”156 The capabilities of this AESA radar would not be less than those of the Chinese multifunction Type 1473 radar, suggested earlier as a candidate for China’s fifth-generation fighter, with a range of 150 km and capable of tracking 15 targets and engaging eight at the same time.157

 
If China chooses a Russian radar instead of a homemade system for the J-20, it would not be surprising in light of its heavy reliance on Russian fire-control radar systems. For example, in 2001 China ordered from Russia 100 Zhuk-8 II modern multimode radars, made by the company Phazotron and developed from the N019 radar of the MiG-29, to be retrofitted in its J-8B (known before as the J-8 II) “Finback” fighters as part of a modernization of the aircraft.158 Also, Russia has proposed its Phazotron Zhemchug multimode fire-control radar - a modification of the Zhuk-M radar - for the Chinese J-10 and FC-1 fighters, and a variant of Phazotron’s Zhuk-ME - named also RP-35 – multimode radar for the J-10 fighter.159 The J-10 multirole fighter will become the mainstay of China’s light single-engine fighter fleet with a reported requirement for 300 aircraft, replacing the J-7 (China’s version of the MiG-21) fighter and possibly also the Q-5 strike aircraft.160 However, more orders of the J-10 are likely to follow beyond the initial 300 aircraft.

 
Moreover, currently the mainstay of China’s fleet of heavy twin-engine air superiority/ multirole fighters is constituted by the Russian Su-27SK/SKM, Su-30MKK and Su-30MK2 Flankers, all equipped with Russian radars.161 Incidentally, the Chinese Flanker fleet would be at least 626 aircraft, including “two ground instructional airframes” and aircraft on order.162 To these should probably be added 24 Su-30MK3 naval strike/multirole fighters ordered by China, for an estimated total of 650 Flankers sold by Russia.163 The Su-30MK3 is an improved version of the Su-30MK2, of which the People’s Liberation Army Naval Air Force (PLANAF) acquired 24. However, although it was also reported that the PLA Navy was “expected to announce follow-on orders,” there is no proof that the initial batch of 24 Su-30MK3 was ever delivered.164 If China ordered from Russia as many as 650 Flankers, this number would not be far from the force of 690 F-15A/B/C/D/E of the U.S. Air Force in 2009 or even the 739 F-15 of the USAF in 2010.165 Incidentally, the “deputy director” of Russia’s state arms exports corporation revealed that Russia and China began last year early negotiations for the export of Sukhoi Su-35 4 ++ generation fighters to the PLAAF. Talks are also underway on the integration of the Su-35 with China’s force of Su-30MKK and J-11.166   

 
In case the Chinese opt for a Russian radar for the J-20, it may likely be a system developed by the company Tikhomirov NIIP. This Russian avionics firm has provided the fire-control radars for China’s Su-27SK/SKM, Su-30MKK, and Su-30MK2 fighters.167 Moreover, China may be offered a further modernization of its Flankers similar to the Su-27SM2 upgrade for the Russian Air Force, which would include the more advanced passive electronically scanned array (PESA) N135 Irbis radar, also made by Tikhomirov NIIP.168 Indeed, there were plans for China to test in 2006 an Irbis radar in a Su-30MK2.169 

 
Tikhomirov NIIP is also the company chosen to provide the radar suite of the PAK FA, Russia’s fifth-generation fighter.170 Speaking in 2003 about the PAK FA, the general director of Tikhomirov NIIP revealed that his company “is supposed to coordinate the fighter’s whole avionics complex (in frequency and timing patterns and the like).”171 Like the PAK FA, the J-20 would be fitted with an AESA radar system that may include a side-scan radar on the fuselage, as opposed to the PAK FA, in which case “[t]he side coverage radar will not be located on the fuselage, but in a fairing beneath the fuselage.”172 The radar suite for the PAK FA is the SH-121 that comprises the N050 AESA X-band radar, X-band AESA radars on the starboard and port sides of the plane, and conformal L-band AESA radars on the leading edges of the wings.173

 
A Tikhomirov NIIP radar suite for the J-20 may include the company’s advertised L-band AESA conformal array that can be installed on the leading edges of a fighter’s wings, including the Su-27, Su-30MK, and Su-35 fighters.174 The L-band radar is capable of detecting fighter-sized stealth aircraft and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV),175 a task in which the system would be more effective if mated to the technology of “track before detect” (TBD) as pioneered by the Israeli Conformal Airborne Early Warning (CAEW) radar system.176 The track before detect technology enables an AESA radar to detect and track “small targets,” including those with a small radar cross-section.177 It must be mentioned that the Chinese fourth-generation Flanker fleet may also be upgraded with an Irbis PESA radar modified with a Pero antenna system that combines an “X-band array” with an “L-band array,” the latter used to detect stealthy air targets.178 Already a Pero radar system was tested in the summer of 2005 on a PLANAF Su-30MK2.179 

 
The capabilities of the Tikhomirov NIIP AESA fire-control radar for the PAK FA, and potentially for the J-20, would be no less than those of the N135E Irbis PESA radar for the latest member of the Flanker family, the Su-35. The Irbis radar is able to track-while-scan 30 air targets and engage simultaneously eight. It can detect “head-on,” approaching air targets with a radar cross-section of 3 square meters at 400 km maximum range, and air targets with a radar cross-section of 0.01 square meter at a range of 90 km.180 In this regard, the radar cross-section of the F-22A is between 0.001 and 0.01 square meter.181 It must be added that an earlier Tikhomirov NIIP project, the N014 radar for the rejected MiG Project 1.44 fifth-generation fighter of the 1990s, had a maximum range of 420 km.182

 
In case that the Chinese decide to fit the J-20 with a Russian-made radar, they may choose alternatively systems from the Phazotron-NIIR company, which supplied the Zhuk-MSE fire-control radar for the Su-30MK3.183 Phazotron has developed also an AESA radar for a Flanker-sized fighter, the Zhuk-ASE,184 and it is likely that an AESA radar for the J-20 would have the capability of engaging eight targets simultaneously.185   

 
According to Vice Admiral David J. Dorsett, Director of Naval Intelligence and the Deputy Chief of Naval Operations for Information Dominance, the Chinese military is developing its electronic warfare capabilities, and it aims to “dominate the electromagnetic spectrum.”186 It is thus probable that the J-20 would be equipped with advanced “digital intercept receiver and signal processing techniques for counter-LPI.”187 This technology allows the detection of stealthy LPI (Low Probability of Intercept) AESA radars of fifth-generation fighters and upgraded fourth-generation fighter aircraft.


The J-20’s radar would likely be capable of jamming the radar of an enemy fighter. Like the F-35, the J-20’s fire-control radar may also have the ability to burn with its powerful radiated energy the electronics of air defense radars and the command and control computers of surface to air missile (SAM) systems. This capability may even allow the Chinese fighter to burn the computer and avionics of another fighter.188

                              
Even though the J-20 prototype that flew in January did not appear to have an infrared search and track/laser rangefinder (IRST/LR) system, the future operational fighter may be equipped with an advanced electro-optical sensor and targeting system.189

 
It is also expected the plane will have advanced electronics, artificial intelligence, sensor fusion technology and an advanced communications system enabling a J-20 real-time data exchange with other aircraft in a flight formation. The computer system may be as sophisticated as the one that reportedly will equip the Russian PAK FA, with the feature of being an “electronic pilot” with a combat direction system instead of being just a combat information system.190 A flight simulator cockpit shows a single main multifunction display dominating the control panel as in the F-35, suggesting it also has touch screen technology.191 The flight simulator is also equipped with a helmet-mounted sight (HMS).192 Pictures of the J-20 show a Heads-Up Display (HUD).193 The operational J-20 is expected to have a “wide-angle holographic HUD,” a system installed in the J-11B and the new J-10B fighter.194 It should be expected that the J-20 will have in the future a more advanced helmet-mounted display (HMD).195

 
The J-20 flight would have tested the aircraft’s “flight-control software and aerodynamics” and powerplant.196 For flight control the J-20 may have a sophisticated fly-by-wire (FBW) system “integrated with the weapons control system and the engines.”197 It is also anticipated that the fighter will have a satellite navigation system capable of using GPS, the Russian GLONASS, and the Chinese Beidou satellite navigation systems. The Beidou 2 system will reportedly be able to provide satellite navigation for the Asia-Pacific region by about 2012 and globally by 2020 or before that.198 The J-20 may also be able to use the EU Galileo satellite navigation system once it achieves worldwide coverage.  

 

Engines:

 
One of the J-20 prototypes reportedly is using a Russian engine while the other has a Chinese powerplant.199 There are reports that one of the J-20s was equipped with the engine for the Russian T-50 stealth fighter prototype, reported to be the Saturn 117S, and that China requested to purchase more of this engine.200 If that was the case, the engine supplied would be the Saturn 117M, an improved version of the 117S engine utilized in the T-50.201 Other reports stated that Russia supplied instead engines with a 14,000 kg thrust, the upgraded Salyut AL-31FM2, to power the J-20 prototypes.202 Incidentally, the AL-31FM2 engine is part of the Su-27SM2 upgrade for the Flanker fleet of the Russian Air Force.203 It has also been reported that the second prototype of the J-20 is equipped with an improved FADEC (Full Authority Digital Engine Control) WS-10G Chinese engine.204 The WS-10G is an advanced version of the Liming WS-10A turbofan, described as a “copy of the Russian AL-31F” engine equipping the Su-27SK and Su-30MKK fighters.205 The WS-10A engine has been powering the J-11B, the Chinese-made improved version of the Su-27SK.206 However, reportedly the WS-10A engine is underpowered when compared to the original Russian AL-31F engine, and it had problems with its “reliability and durability.”207

 
China seems to be working on an advanced engine for its stealth fighter, “the WS-15 afterburning turbofan” which presumably would have supercruise capability.208 Probably being developed with Russian assistance, the WS-15 powerplant for the twin-engine J-20 will have a reported static thrust (st) – probably with afterburning - of about 17,000 kg (37,479 lb), compared to the F-22A Pratt & Whitney F119-PW-100 advanced turbofan engines, each with a static thrust of about 15,876 kg (35,000 lb) with afterburning.209 It was also reported that the Chinese WS-15 engine will have a thrust with afterburning “exceeding 18,000 kg.”210 In comparison, the F-35 Pratt & Whitney F135 turbofan has about 19,504 kg (43,000 lb) static thrust with afterburning.211 Even though the F135 engine has a maximum thrust of 19,504 kg, the twin-engine J-20 powered by WS-15 engines would have a combined maximum thrust of 34,000 kg with afterburning, compared to the maximum thrust of 31,752 kg with afterburners of the F-22A. Consequently, the J-20 would be capable of speeds of Mach 2 and above with afterburners, and thus will be superior to the F-35 in terms of thrust and speed.212 The AMNTK Soyuz R79V-300 turbofan of the Yak-41M fighter, which was reported that China acquired, has a maximum thrust of 15,500 kg (34,170 lb) with afterburning. It seems other modified versions of the engine such as the R79M and R179 were also acquired by the Chinese.213

 
It should be noted that the engine of the Russian twin-engine PAK FA fifth-generation fighter will reportedly have 17,500 kg (38,581 lb) of thrust.214 This level of engine power would be reached with full thrust with afterburners. In terms of maximum thrust with afterburning , the similarity between the proposed WS-15 engine (17,000 kg st) for the J-20 and the planned engine (17,500 kg st) for the PAK FA would point towards Russian collaboration in helping China develop the WS-15 powerplant for the Chinese fifth-generation fighter. It would not be surprising if the WS-15 would be almost a copy of the future Russian “engine of the second stage” for the PAK FA.215 Taking into account the reports that China obtained the engine for the Yak-41M fourth-generation fighter, it must be added that Yakovlev’s stealth fifth-generation V/STOL fighter project would have been powered by an engine with 17,500 kg (47,400 lb) of maximum thrust with afterburner.216  

 
It is too early to tell if China would opt in the end for a Russian or Chinese engine for the operational J-20, but it should be expected that the one chosen will have supercruise capability. The choice of engine will depend on whether the Chinese powerplant for the J-20 being developed is successful, reliable and not underpowered, as the WS-10A engine used in the J-11B fighter. If the choice of powerplant falls on a Russian engine, this would not be surprising. In addition to its Su-27SK/SKM, Su-30MKK and Su-30MK2/MK3 that use the Saturn/Lyulka AL-31F turbofan engine,217 China employs the Russian Klimov RD-93 turbofan for the single-engine FC-1 light fighter.218 Back in 2005 Russia agreed to supply 100 RD-93 engines, providing the option of delivering 400 additional powerplants later. In this regard, last November it was reported that China was negotiating with Russia to buy 100 more RD-93 turbofans, as part of the 2005 agreement giving the Chinese the option to acquire additional engines of this type.219

 
Russia is also delivering the Saturn/Lyulka AL-31FN turbofan for the Chinese single-engine J-10 multirole fighter, with China having received already 86 engines under a 2009 contract for 122 engines being currently implemented.220 Already under an earlier contract fulfilled in January 2004, Russia supplied 54 AL-31FN engines to China.221 This first contract was followed by a second for 100 AL-31FN engines.222 At present, since China is interested in getting more of these engines, the Russian side is “‘preparing to implement a regular contract in the near future.’”223 Moreover, it has been reported that the new batch of additional AL-31FN engines that China is interested in acquiring is intended to power not only J-10 fighters but apparently also “Chinese J-11 fighter planes, a copy of the Russian Su-27 Flanker jet.”224 If the report is accurate, the alluded J-11 aircraft must be in fact J-11B fighters,225 the Chinese-made version of the Su-27. Since China’s WS-10A engine “has so far been unable to generate the required amount of power,” that would explain the report of J-11B fighters being powered by the AL-31FN engine, a variant of the AL-31F powerplant installed in the Su-27.226

 
In addition, the Chinese expressed last year their interest in acquiring advanced Saturn 117S engines, the powerplant of the twin-engine Su-35 that is described as a “4 + + generation [fighter] using fifth-generation technology” now being offered to China.227 The 117S engine has a modern FADEC (Full Authority Digital Engine Control) system, 14,500 kg (31,970 lb) of thrust with afterburners, and thrust-vectoring control nozzles for supermaneuverability in air combat.228 In contrast, the AL-31F engine of the Flankers in Chinese service has about 12,500 kg (27,557 lb) of maximum static thrust with afterburning.229 Still, the thrust of the 117S engine is less than that of the F-22A engines, each with 15,876 kg static thrust with afterburners. The 117S powerplant has been described as “a first-stage engine” for the Russian Air Force’s fighter aircraft.230 This suggests a relationship with Russia’s fifth-generation fighter program, since the PAK FA’s T-50 prototype is powered by the Saturn 117M, an improved version of the 117S engine. Being the baseline 117S engine the “first-stage engine,” it will be succeeded by the more advanced “engine of the second stage,” featuring supercruise capability and the mentioned 17,500 kg thrust with afterburners.231 It is thus likely that if the Chinese opt for a Russian engine for their operational J-20, it would be the one planned for the PAK FA. In addition, the new 117S engine, which China is interested in acquiring, is “a thoroughly upgraded version of the AL-31F turbofan,”232 again, used by the Russian Flanker fighters now in service in the PLAAF and PLANAF. This indicates that the Chinese are accustomed to and approve of Russian fighter powerplants.


The J-20 will reportedly be equipped with thrust-vectoring technology,233 probably through engine nozzles with tri-dimensional vectoring, which coupled with its movable canards provide the plane super maneuverability in close air combat. The J-20 that flew for the first time in January has two engine nozzles with a serrated edge design and what looks like special coatings, possibly to reduce their radar/infrared signature.234   

 
Some in the U.S. intelligence and defense communities did not see the development of the J-20 as a problem, “asserting that difficulties with the jet’s engines and the long periods required for Chinese fighter development are factors.”235 In this regard, it would be safe to assume that such skepticism largely ignores or underestimates the close level of Sino-Russian cooperation in the defense sector. For one thing, if the Chinese fail to develop an optimum engine for the J-20 they can solve the problem acquiring a Russian engine off-the-shelf, as it has been done in the cases of the FC-1 and J-10 fighters. Moreover, Russian involvement in helping China develop the J-20, no doubt with the help of generous Chinese funding, may help shorten the period of development of the fighter. In fact, the images of the J-20 prototype that flew in January suggest that the Chinese fifth-generation fighter program is well advanced. Indeed, it has been reported that “many…subsystems [of the J-20] have been tested onboard either a J-10B or a J-11B to speed up development.”236     

 

The Fighter Gap:

 
The Pentagon considers it to be an adequate measure solely to upgrade USAF F-15C/D Eagle fighters from the 1980s with the modernized AN/APG-63(V)3. This measure is a substitute for acquiring more F-22A fighters for the air superiority role.237 The AN/APG-63(V)3 AESA radar, which is an upgrade of the older baseline radar,238 is a more powerful system with a longer range of detection.239 It is thus expected that F-15C fighters equipped with the upgraded radar would be able to detect an enemy stealthy aircraft like the J-20 at long distances and successfully engage them at beyond visual ranges. F-15Cs fitted with the AN/APG-63(V)3 will operate in the Pacific together with F-22As. Due to their stealth, the Raptors would approach and ambush enemy aircraft while the non-stealthy F-15C would attract the attention of unsuspecting enemy fighters.240


The problem with such scenario is that the Chinese J-20s would likely have AESA radars with a long range like that of the Irbis radar, thanks to Russian help. In addition, Chinese Flankers may be equipped with the long-range Irbis or Pero radar systems, the latter apparently capable of detecting stealth aircraft. Even though the radar of the modernized F-15C will be able to detect small targets like stealthy cruise missiles,241 with the new Russian radars the Chinese fighters may detect first the non-stealthy Eagles. The radar waves of the F-15C would be weakened when reaching the J-20 or the Flankers at long distance, and the Chinese fighters’ active stealth system (if fitted with one) would annul them. The J-20 and the Chinese Flankers equipped with a long-range radar could then engage the F-15C with BVR missiles operating with a passive seeker head guided by the U.S. fighter’s radar waves. Moreover, the Chinese fighters would be alerted by the F-15C to the possible presence of F-22A, and would proceed to search for the Raptors using an infrared search and track system that the F-22A does not have. Even though the AN/APG-63(V)3 AESA radar is a low probability of intercept (LPI) radar, the J-20, upgraded Flankers, and also the PAK FA are likely to be equipped with advanced “counter-LPI” systems242 that would enable them to detect the LPI AESA radars of U.S. aircraft.

 
The Pentagon plans to upgrade 179 F-15C/D with the AN/APG-63(V)3 radar, and later on its force of 217 F-15E with the improved AN/APG-82 AESA radar (possibly named initially AN/APG-63(V)4).243 The modernized F-15C/D are planned to be in service until 2025 and the upgraded F-15E till 2035.244 This force of 396 fourth-generation F-15C/D/E will operate alongside 186 F-22A fifth-generation fighters,245 for a total force of 582 USAF modernized and modern twin-engine fighters designed with the air superiority mission in mind. In terms of this category of fighter aircraft one could see a fighter gap in the USAF air superiority fighter inventory vis-à-vis China. By 2013 the USAF will have in the island of Okinawa 54 F-15C upgraded with the AN/APG-63(V)3 radar plus 12 to 18 F-22A of “a rotating force.”246 Facing this force will be about 650 Chinese Flankers, a number of which would have been upgraded with modern Russian radars such as the Pero X-band/L-band radar system. In 2017-2019 China is expected to introduce into service the J-20 stealth fighter and earlier than that possibly the Su-35, making worse the fighter gap problem as older F-15A/B/C/D not modernized are retired.247

 
Confirming the existence of a U.S. fighter gap with China, two recent computer simulations of air wars between U.S. and Chinese fighter aircraft showed the PLAAF victorious at the strategic, theater and tactical levels. The Rand Corporation performed under contract by the U.S Air Force one of the simulations while the other was commissioned by the Australian defense ministry to a defense contractor.248 According to the Australian defense contractor, in the computer exercise the Chinese fighter force ended up winning due to its numerical superiority, even after “assuming a shoot-down ratio of six Chinese jets to every U.S. fighter and that each high-tech U.S. air-to-air missile fired would take out its Chinese target with no misses or misfires – both optimistic assumptions” in the words of the Washington Times. The defense contractor explained that in spite of its high losses, the Chinese fighter force was able in the simulation to intercept the air platforms on which U.S. modern air operations are dependent, such as the airborne early warning E-3 AWACS, the TECHINT (technical intelligence) RC-135U Combat Sent, the signals intelligence RC-135V/W Rivet Joint, P-3 aircraft, and air tankers. If the Chinese destroy these aircraft in an air war, as it happened in the exercise, “U.S. air-battle capability collapses.” Incidentally, the J-20 was not a part of the simulation.249

 
The threat of a regional conflict engulfing China and the U.S. is real. Potential flashpoints are the Korean Peninsula, Taiwan, and Chinese territorial claims in the East China Sea and the South China Sea, with China laying claim to all of the latter.250 Moreover, a conflict with China in the Western Pacific could spill over to Afghanistan. China has been supplying weapons and support to the Afghan Taliban.251 In case of war between China and the U.S. over Taiwan, for example, the Chinese may conduct an air war over Afghanistan intercepting with J-20s U.S. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, transport aircraft and manned combat aircraft, in the process giving support to Taliban operations. Chinese J-20 may also conduct air strikes against U.S. bases on Afghan territory, flying through the Wakhan Corridor, across Pakistani-controlled Kashmir and Pakistan, and/or over Tajikistan to operate over Afghanistan. There were opinions that questioned a couple of years ago the need of sophisticated F-22 fighters in a conflict like that of Afghanistan. These views forgot the fact that the F-22 is the best guarantor of U.S. air supremacy in that country against external conventional threats, including China’s large fourth-generation fighter fleet. It would appear that more Raptors may be needed after all to protect our forces in Afghanistan and our air communications with the country, in the face of China’s present and future fighter force.  

 
According to Wayne Ulman of the National Air and Space Intelligence Center, China is taking steps to respond to an “expected U.S. intervention in support of Taiwan.” In case of war with the U.S., Chinese air power is expected to strike U.S. bases in the region to destroy USAF aircraft. U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups would also be attacked as well as support assets.252 China would need to achieve air superiority to neutralize any effective counterattacks by the USAF and the U.S. Navy’s aircraft carriers. The J-20 would play a key role in operations to defeat our fighter forces. Both the J-20 fighter and a J-20 bomber version, if built, would be instrumental in carrying out through stealth the opening air strikes of an air offensive to decimate our forces in the region of the First Island Chain and the Philippine Sea. The J-20 bomber version with a range of about 4,000 km would be able also to conduct attacks against U.S. bases and strategic targets in the Second Island Chain like those in Guam, requiring in-flight refueling to be able to return to mainland China. The J-20 fighter would be able also to carry out operations against Guam with air refueling.253 

 
The J-20 would operate also above the South China Sea, over which - according to the PLA - China has ‘indisputable sovereignty.’254 It may be able to operate from a forward air base in Woody Island in the Paracel Islands.255 In the opening stages of a conflict over Taiwan, the PLA Navy may attempt to capture in the Spratly Islands the Taiwanese-controlled Itu Aba Island, with a new airstrip 1,150 meters-long, and probably also the Filipino-held Thitu Island, also known as Pagasa Island, which has an airstrip with a length of 1,290 meters.256 If captured, these islands could provide emergency landing strips and even forward bases from which Chinese fighters including J-20s could operate against the U.S. Navy and disrupt the sea lines of communication (SLOC) running across the South China Sea.257

 
Light single-engine fighters like the F-16 and F-35 are capable of carrying out air superiority missions. This kind of fighters are the workhorse of major air forces like those of the U.S. and China, which have more single-engine fighters than those with two engines (getting two fighters for one). However, heavy twin-engine fighters are superior in the air superiority mission. In this regard, compared to the twin-engine F-22A and the future PAK FA and J-20, single-engine fighters lack: the greater thrust and speed afforded by two engines, supercruise capability, greater internal fuel capacity and range, greater endurance and persistence, greater maneuverability thanks to thrust vectoring, and greater survivability, as a twin-engine aircraft flying over the ocean with a damaged engine would have a chance to return to base while a single-engine aircraft would not.

 
The Defense Department’s solution to upgrade F-15s from the 1980s and 1990s with modernized, not newly-built radars is a stopgap measure that ignores the fact that non-stealthy aircraft will be detected first by fifth-generation fighters – and could be detected first also by fourth-generation fighters – that would proceed to fire first against our fighters.258 Nor would Boeing’s proposed F-15SE Silent Eagle stealthy version would be an adequate solution to our fighter gap. Its stealthy features, like the F-35, are concentrated in the frontal aspect of the plane.259 As opposed to the F-22A, which has an all-aspect stealthy design, if scanned by radar from behind the F-15SE and the F-35 could be detected. Moreover, the F-15SE can only carry four AMRAAM missiles internally to maintain a stealthy frontal profile, while the F-22A can carry internally six AMRAAM and the F-35 may be able to carry also six, with two additional AMRAAM each in the internal starboard and port weapons compartments of the Lightning II in place of a JDAM precision-guided bomb.

 

Naval aviation:

 
The J-20 in a navalized version may operate from the new aircraft carriers China plans to build, which reportedly are 4-6 ships in addition to the former Soviet carrier Varyag.260 China’s reportedly is building now an aircraft carrier that is expected to be finished in 2014, and it is rebuilding the Varyag, planned to enter service in 2012. China has also plans to build a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier by 2020.261 Previously, the PLA Navy declared its interest in acquiring aircraft with supercruise capability.262 Supercruise would allow a fighter to cover large expanses of ocean at supersonic speeds without the need to use afterburners, thus saving fuel that would enable the aircraft to fly supersonically farther in a shorter period of time. Supercruise could thus “double the effective sortie rate” of the J-20 in strike missions.263 Hence, some two years ago the commander of the PLA Navy, Admiral Wu Shengli, stated in an interview that “sophisticated equipment is the key material basis for winning a regional naval war,” declaring also that “we must develop new-generation weapons such as…supercruising combat aircraft….”264 The PLANAF is also likely to acquire land-based J-20 fighters as in the case of the Su-30MK2/3.

 
The J-20 would play the role of air superiority fighter capable of conducting reconnaissance as well as strike missions operating from a carrier battle group, similar to the role played by the F-14D Super Tomcat in the U.S. Navy.265 The J-20 would attempt to intercept the U.S. Navy’s carrier-based E-2C/D Hawkeye airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft and the new EA-18G Growler electronic warfare (EW) aircraft,266 probably using long range BVR air-to-air missiles with passive seekers guided by the electromagnetic emissions of their targets. J-20 fighters would also intercept P-8A Poseidon anti-submarine warfare (ASW) maritime patrol aircraft in support of the PLA Navy submarine force.

 
Due to its stealth technology, supercruise capability and super maneuverability, the J-20 would probably prove superior to the fourth-generation F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and to the fifth-generation F-35C in air combat.267 Since the U.S. Navy retired the F-14D air superiority/multirole fighter, the aircraft carriers do not have – and will not have for about the next two decades - a fighter aircraft in the category of the land-based F-15, F-22, Su-35, PAK FA and J-20 to achieve and maintain air superiority in an air war. As a member of the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo said, in case that the J-20 “is a real success, it will definitely make it more difficult for US carriers and long-range assets to operate in this region” of the Western Pacific.268

 

Future fighter force:

 
If the plane proves to be successful, China could mass-produce the J-20 for the PLAAF and the PLANAF to a number of 400-500 aircraft.269 Based on India’s plans to acquire 300 FGFA (Fifth-Generation Fighter Aircraft) stealth fighters,270 China should introduce into service at least 300 J-20. The Chinese fifth-generation fighter may replace the J-8 “Finback” multirole fighter, which by early 2010 numbered in all its versions 360 aircraft, including 312 in the PLAAF and 48 in the PLANAF.271 However, China is probably set to get more J-20 as rivals and neighbors acquire more fifth-generation fighters. It is also possible that China may still acquire the Russian PAK FA, in part because of the latter’s greater internal missile and bomb capacity. In that case, the J-20 would play the role of the F-22 in achieving air superiority and performing fighter escort missions as well as support strike missions, while the PAK FA would perform more strike missions like the F-35A is expected to do. It is also possible that China instead will develop a bomber version of the J-20, which will be able to conduct long-range strike missions over land and sea.       

 

Commercial interest:

 
Since Russia has proved so successful in the international market of fighter aircraft with its Su-27/Su-30MK Flanker family, it would not be surprising that commercially minded China would like a piece of the market by exporting in the future the J-20. Reportedly, between 2000 and 2009 Russian Sukhoi multirole fighters represented 32.35 percent of the international market, occupying second place worldwide with 437 fighters exported, while fighters from the Chinese company Chengdu were in third place with 90 aircraft exported during the same period.272 The J-20 may compete in the future with the PAK FA and with the F-35 in the selected market of fifth-generation fighters. Nevertheless, Russia could still benefit from future exports of J-20 that would incorporate key Russian-made systems and components.

 

Recommendations:
 

  • Maintain open the F-22 production line by allocating funding for 12 Raptors from the 2011 defense budget.273 As Lt. General Deptula suggested, the existence of the J-20 ought to “cause prudent decision-makers to reconsider the closure of the F-22…line.”274 In this regard, the Russian PAK FA should be added to the J-20 as a food for thought. Already Lockheed Martin has been instructed by the Air Force to maintain the capability to manufacture the F-22, after the last of 187 ordered aircraft is delivered in April 2012, in case its production would have to be restarted.275
  • Allow the export of F-22 to Japan, Australia, Singapore, South Korea, and Israel.276
  • Deploy a new generation of airborne early warning and control systems. The U.S. Navy is set to deploy in the future the E-2D Advanced Hawkeye AEW&C system equipped with a UHF (ultra high frequency) radar, capable of detecting low observable (LO) air targets.277 Airborne tests are being conducted with Northrop Grumman’s Multi-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar (MB-SAR) operating in UHF and in the L-band.278 Although the AWACS fleet (USAF and allies) has been upgraded with the “APY-1/2 Radar System Improvement Program” to detect “low radar cross-section targets such as cruise missiles,”279 the system’s S-band radar may not be as effective in detecting stealth aircraft280 as UHF and L-band radars. A new generation AEW&C system for the USAF should replace the E-3 Sentry like the planned E-10B,281 probably to be equipped with the new MB-SAR system. Other options available are dual S-band and L-band radars with “track before detect” technology like Israel’s Conformal Airborne Early Warning (CAEW) system or Australia’s Boeing 737 AEW&C Wedgetail with the L-band Multirole Electronically Scanned Array (MESA) radar system, all capable of tracking and detecting stealth aircraft.282
  • Deploy aboard U.S. Navy ships radar systems capable of detecting stealth aircraft. Originally, the VSR (Volume Search Radar) element of the Dual-Band Radar suite of the DDG-1000, Zumwalt class of guided-missile destroyers would have been an L-band radar, but the Navy decided in 2003 to change it to an S-band array due to its experience with the S-band AEGIS SPY-1 radar system.283 It is imperative that the Navy deploys at sea sensor systems capable of detecting stealthy air targets.
  • Continue funding of R&D and deployment of advanced counter-stealth technologies, such as the latest counter-LPI (low probability of intercept) systems to detect LPI AESA radars or airborne systems capable of detecting stealth aircraft through detection of the signals generated by the aircraft avionics. This passive system like the Czech Tamara ELINT system may be still able to detect a stealth aircraft equipped with an active cancellation system.284Another technology that should be explored is a sensor system capable of detecting plasma, to detect stealth aircraft using a plasma cloaking device. In this regard and in relation to the Russian “Progress M-05M cargo spacecraft,” last year Russian scientists conducted experiments “aimed at studying various plasma formations that emerge from its thrusters. Scientists observed the plasma emissions using a ground-based radar in the Siberian city of Irkutsk.”285    
  • Fund development of a carrier-based version of the F-22 just in case.286
  • Initiate development of a sixth-generation fighter to replace the F-22 in about twenty years,287 to maintain the technological edge over foreign fifth-generation fighters.
  • Continue to develop and maintain strategic partnerships and close levels of military cooperation with key allies in the Asia-Pacific region such as Japan, Australia, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and the Philippines. Defense cooperation should emphasize allied forces coordination at the operational level, particularly in network-centric warfare.  



1 Paul Jackson, ed., Jane’s All the World’s Aircraft 2006-2007, 97th ed. (Coulsdon, U.K.: Jane’s Information Group, 2006), p. 97.
2 RIA Novosti, “China confirms maiden flight of fifth-generation fighter,” January 11, 2011, at http://en.rian.ru/world/20110111/162100197.html (January 11, 2011). Reuben F. Johnson, “China tests stealth fighter as Gates meets with Hu,” The Washington Times, January 11, 2011, at http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/jan/11/china-tests-advanced-fighter-as-gates-confers-with/ (February 20, 2011); Wendell Minnick, “China Conducts First Flight Test of J-20,” DefenseNews, January 11, 2011, at http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=5427833 (January 25, 2011).
3 Bill Sweetman, “Chinese J-20 Stealth Fighter in Taxi Tests,” Aviation Week, January 3, 2011, at http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story.jsp?id=news/awst/2011/01/03/AW_01_03_2011_p18-279564.xml&channel=defense (January 20, 2011).
4 See Mackenzie Eaglen and Lajos F. Szaszdi, “What Russia’s Stealth Fighter Developments Mean for America,” Heritage Foundation Backgrounder No. 2494, December 1, 2010, at http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2010/12/What-Russias-Stealth-Fighter-Developments-Mean-for-America.
5 Bill Sweetman, “Chinese J-20 Stealth Fighter In Taxi Tests,” Aviation Week, January 3, 2011, at http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story.jsp?id=news/awst/2011/01/03/AW_01_03_2011_p18-279564.xml&channel=defense (January 12, 2011); Thomas McInerney, “‘Stealth’ Chinese Fighter Jet Photos No Accident,” FoxNews.com, January 6, 2011, at http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2011/01/06/stealth-chinese-fighter-jet-photos-accident/ (January 13, 2011); Johnson, “China tests stealth fighter as Gates meets with Hu;” Michael Wines and Edward Wong, “China’s Push to Modernize Military Is Bearing Fruit,” The New York Times, January 5, 2011, at http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/06/world/asia/06china.html?_r=1&ref=world (February 12, 2011).
6 Central News Agency, “China reportedly tests stealth fighter,” GlobalSecurity.org, January 11, 2011, at http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/china/2011/china-110111-cna01.htm (January 13, 2011). Bill Gertz, “Inside the Ring: DIA on China’s new fighter,” The Washington Times, November 19, 2009, at http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/nov/19/inside-the-ring-37209361/ (February 12, 2011); Feng, “My thoughts on J-20,” Information Dissemination, January 2, 2011, at http://www.informationdissemination.net/2011/01/my-thoughts-on-j-20.html (January 10, 2011).
7 Yefim Gordon and Dmitriy Komissarov, Chinese Air Power: Current Organization and Aircraft of all Chinese Air Forces (Hersham, U.K.: Midland Publishing, 2010), p. 379.
8 Yu Miao, “Hu confirms stealth jet test,” Global Times, January 12, 2011, at http://military.globaltimes.cn/china/2011-01/611538.html (January 13, 2011).
9 Feng, “J-20 had its first flight, what now?,” Blogger.com, January 15, 2011, at http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2011/01/j-20-had-its-first-flight-what-now.html (February 26, 2011).
10 Military Technology, World Defence Almanac 2009, (Bonn, Germany: Mönch Publishing Group, 2009), p. 357; The International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance 2010 (Abingdon, U.K.: Routledge, 2010), pp. 403-4; Gordon and Komissarov, Chinese Air Power, pp. 77-79, 85; Andreas Rupprech, “Chengdu J-10,” International Air Power Review, vol. 22 (Westport, Conn.: AIRtime Publishing, 2007), p. 56.   
11 NASIC is the main source of U.S. military intelligence analysis “on foreign air and space forces, weapons and systems.” See Jim Wolf, “New Chinese fighter jet expected by 2018: U.S. intelligence,” Reuters, May 21, 2010, at http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/05/21/us-china-usa-fighter-idUSTRE64K0MY20100521 (January 11, 2011).
12 Shirong Chen, “China military modernization gathers pace,” BBC News, January 7, 2011, at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12134611 (January 9, 2011). See also Carlo Kopp, “The Strategic Impact of China’s J-XX [J-20] Stealth Fighter,” Air Power Australia NOTAM, January 9, 2011, at http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-NOTAM-090111-1.html (February 27, 2011). See also Jon Grevatt, “China’s Five-Year Plan aims to put defence industry on global stage,” Jane’s Defence Weekly, January 5, 2011, p. 19.
13 BBC News, “China says it will boost its defence budget in 2011,” March 4, 2011, at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12631357 (March 4, 2011).
14 Feng, “My thoughts on J-20;” David A. Fulghum and others, “Stealthy Chinese J-20 Vulnerable,” Aviation Week, January 18, 2011, at http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story.jsp?id=news/awst/2011/01/17/AW_01_17_2011_p20-281824.xml&headline=Stealthy%20Chinese%20J-20%20Vulnerable&channel=awst (February 12, 2011); Kenji Minemura, “China’s stealth jet not yet ready to fly,” asashi.com, at http://www.asahi.com/english/TKY201101070300.html (January 9, 2011).
15 Reuben F. Johnson, “Russia, China push fifth-generation fighter projects to meet milestones,” Jane’s Defence Weekly, December 15, 2010, p. 5; idem, “China tests stealth fighter as Gates meets with Hu;” Sonia, ed., “Sale a la luz el nuevo cazabombardero chino J-20,” Spanish.china.org.cn, January 6, 2011, at http://spanish.china.org.cn/china/txt/2011-01/06/content_21684796_2.htm (January 10, 2011); Jeremy Page, “Test Flight Signals Jet Has Reached New Stage,” The Wall Street Journal, January 12, 2011, at http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704515904576075852091744070.html (January 13, 2011).
16 Carlo Kopp and Peter Goon, “Chengdu J-XX [J-20] Stealth Fighter Prototype: A Preliminary Assessment,” Air Power Australia Technical Report, January 3, 2011, at http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-J-XX-Prototype.html (January 24, 2011); Georg Mader, “Hype from the ‘Middle-Kingdom’ – China Allows Spotters to Web-Leak its First Stealth Jet,” Military Technology, February 2011, p. 11.
17 See also Wolf, “New Chinese fighter jet expected by 2018: U.S. intelligence;” Tony Capaccio, “China’s J-20 Stealth Jet Meant to Counter F-22, F-35, U.S. Analysis Says,” Bloomberg, January 6, 2011, at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-06/china-s-j-20-stealth-fighter-meant-to-counter-f-22-f-35-u-s-navy-says.html (January 12, 2011).
18 David A. Fulghum, “Numbers Matter,” Aviation Week & Space Technology, January 3, 2011, p. 21.
19China’s New Stealth Jet ‘Challenges U.S. Air Supremacy,’” The Chosun Ilbo, January 19, 2011, at http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2011/01/19/2011011900374.html (January 21, 2011).
20 The J-20 may benefit from the lessons learned from several live simulated close combat exercises between J-10 fighters and Chinese Flanker fighters in which the former reportedly prevailed. See Rupprech, “Chengdu J-10,” pp. 50-51, 54-56.  
21 Tai Ming Cheung, “What The J-20 Says About China’s Defense Sector,” The Wall Street Journal, January 13, 2011, at http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2011/01/13/what-the-j-20-says-about-chinas-defense-sector/ (January 13, 2011).
22 Ilya Kramnik, “The future of China’s fifth-generation stealth fighter,” RIA Novosti, December 29, 2011, at http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20101229/161986565.html (December 31, 2010); Sonia, ed., “Sale a la luz el nuevo cazabombardero chino J-20.”
23 Agence France-Presse, “McKeon: China Got Stealthy Technology from Russia,” DefenseNews, January 18, 2011, at http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=5483060&c=AIR&s=TOP (January 24, 2011).
24 Richard Norton-Taylor, “Experts surprised by quick development of Chinese stealth fighter jet,” Guardian.co.uk, January 11, 2011, at http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/11/development-china-stealth-fighter-jet (January 11, 2011).
25 Reuben F. Johnson, “Russian experts skeptical about China’s new J-20,” Jane’s Defence Weekly, January 12, 2011, p. 4.
26 Grevatt, “China’s Five-Year Plan aims to put defence industry on global stage,” p. 19.
27 Jackson, Jane’s All the World’s Aircraft 2006-2007, p. 117.
28 Jackson, Jane’s All the World’s Aircraft 2006-2007, p. 117.
29 SinoDefence.com, “J-XX 4th-Generation Fighter Aircraft,” January 3, 2008 (last update), at http://www.sinodefence.com/airforce/fighter/jxx.asp (February 12, 2011).
30 SinoDefence.com, “J-XX 4th-Generation Fighter Aircraft.”
31 Gordon and Komissarov, Chinese Air Power, p. 381. See the image of the Mikoyan Project 1.44 at http://www.the-blueprints.com/blueprints-depot-restricted/modernplanes/mikoyan-gurevich-mig/mikoyan_mig_1_44-28141.jpg and at http://www.suchoj.com/andere/MiG-MFI/riss/1.44_02.jpg (January 24, 2010). See the design of the J-20 in the picture at http://www.ausairpower.net/PLA-AF/Chengdu-J-XX-VLO-Prototype-27S.jpg in Carlo Kopp and Peter Goon, “Chengdu J-XX [J-20] Stealth Fighter Prototype: A Preliminary Assessment,” Air Power Australia Technical Report, January 3, 2011, at http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-J-XX-Prototype.html (January 24, 2011); David A. Fulghum and others, “Stealthy Chinese J-20 Vulnerable;” International Institute for Strategic Studies, “China’s J-20: future rival for air dominance?,” Strategic Comments, February 2011, at http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-17-2011/february/chinas-j-20-future-rival-for-air-dominance/ (February 3, 2011); Mader, “Hype from the ‘Middle-Kingdom’ – China Allows Spotters to Web-Leak its First Stealth Jet,” p. 11; Praveen Swami, “China’s J-20 stealth fighter: ‘design is 25 years old,’” The Telegraph, January 6, 2011, at http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/8241968/Chinas-J-20-stealth-fighter-design-is-25-years-old.html (January 12, 2011); Rupprech, “Chengdu J-10,” p. 57; See also Yefim Gordon, Sukhoi S-37 and Mikoyan MFI: Russian Fifth-Generation Fighter Technology Demonstrators, Red Star Vol. 1 (Hinckley, U.K.: Midland Publishing, 2001). pp. 28-30, 45-48, 100-101.
32 See the top view of the MiG Project 1.44 design at http://www.the-blueprints.com/blueprints-depot-restricted/modernplanes/mikoyan-gurevich-mig/mikoyan_mig_1_44-28141.jpg and at Gordon, Sukhoi S-37 and Mikoyan MFI, p. 46. See a top view of the J-20 design in ARMS-TASS, “Zapadnye eksperty polagaiot, chto pokazannyi obrazets, novogo kitaiskogo istrebitelia J-20 iavliaetsia demonstratorom,” February 4, 2011, at http://arms-tass.su/?page=article&aid=92517&cid=25 (February 13, 2011).
33 ARMS-TASS, “Zapadnye eksperty polagaiot, chto pokazannyi obrazets, novogo kitaiskogo istrebitelia J-20 iavliaetsia demonstratorom.”
34 Gordon, Sukhoi S-37 and Mikoyan MFI, p. 72.
35 Sweetman, “Chinese J-20 Stealth Fighter In Taxi Tests;” Mader, “Hype from the ‘Middle-Kingdom’ – China Allows Spotters to Web-Leak its First Stealth Jet,” p. 11.
36 Gordon, Sukhoi S-37 and Mikoyan MFI, pp. 67, 71.
37 Tony Buttler and Yefim Gordon, Soviet Secret Projects: Bombers since 1945 (Hinckley, U.K.: Midland Publishing, 2004), p. 115; Yefim Gordon and Dmitriy Komissarov, OKB Sukhoi: A History of the Design Bureau and its Aircraft (Hersham, U.K.: Midland Publishing, 2010), pp. 517-18.
38 See ARMS-TASS, “Zapadnye eksperty polagaiot, chto pokazannyi obrazets, novogo kitaiskogo istrebitelia J-20 iavliaetsia demonstratorom;” Gordon and Komissarov, OKB Sukhoi, pp. 517-18.
39 Tony Buttler and Yefim Gordon, Soviet Secret Projects: Fighters Since 1945 (Hinckley, U.K.: Midland Publishing, 2005), p. 153; Yefim Gordon, Dmitriy Komissarov and Sergey Komissarov, OKB Yakovlev: A History of the Design Bureau and its Aircraft (Hinckley, U.K.: Midland Publishing, 2005), p. 234; Gordon, Sukhoi S-37 and Mikoyan MFI, pp. 9-10. See also a picture of a model of the Yakovlev stealth fighter at http://paralay.com/lfsyak/10.jpg (January 25, 2011). See also the picture of a model of a Yakovlev project for an advanced V/STOL fighter in Yefim Gordon, Yakovlev Yak-36, Yak-38 & Yak-41: The Soviet ‘Jump Jets,’ Red Star Volume 36 (Hinckley, U.K.: Midland, 2008), p. 122.
40 Gordon, Sukhoi S-37 and Mikoyan MFI, p. 10.
41 Vladimir Karnozov, “Chengdu J-20. China’s tool to ram ‘cheese boxes on rafts,’” in Stephen Trimble, “J-20: China’s ultimate aircraft carrier-killer?,” The Dew Line in Flightglobal, February 9, 2011, at http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/the-dewline/2011/02/j-20-chinas-ultimate-aircraft.html (February 23, 2011); Gordon, Yakovlev Yak-36, Yak-38 & Yak-41, pp. 125-26; Gordon, Komissarov and Komissarov, OKB Yakovlev, pp.343-44. Karnozov’s article was described as “author’s translation of the original text in Russian, published on January 12 by www.aex.ru.”   
42 Xinhua News Agency, “Russia, China hold 5th round of strategic security talks,” China.org.cn, January 25, 2011, at http://www.china.org.cn/world/2011-01/25/content_21811824.htm (January 25, 2011); Xinhua News Agency, “China, Russia to hold fifth strategic security negotiations,” English.news.cn, January 18, 2011, at http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2011-01/18/c_13696573.htm (January 23, 2011); Stephanie Ho, “China, Russia Agree to Strengthen Strategic Partnership,” VOANews.com, September 27, 2010, at http://www.voanews.com/english/news/China-Russia-Agree-to-Strengthen-Strategic-Partnership-103851564.html (January 23, 2011). 
43 See Eaglen and Szaszdi, “What Russia’s Stealth Fighter Developments Mean for America;” Yefim Gordon, Sukhoi Su-27 (Hinckley, U.K.: Midland Publishing, 2007), p. 566.
44 Jackson, Jane’s All the World’s Aircraft 2006-2007, pp. 96-97.
45 Yefim Gordon and Dmitriy Komissarov, Chinese Aircraft: China’s aviation industry since 1951 (Manchester, U.K.: Hikoki Publications, 2008), p. 106.
46 Gordon and Komissarov, Chinese Air Power, p. 382.
47 Gordon and Komissarov, Chinese Air Power, pp. 382, 379; Johnson, “Russia, China push fifth-generation fighter projects to meet milestones,” p. 5; David Donald, “China Reveals New Combat Aircraft Design,” AINonline, January 7, 2011, at http://www.ainonline.com/news/single-news-page/article/china-reveals-new-combat-aircraft-design-28160/ (January 11, 2011).
48 Robert Hewson, ed., Jane’s Air Launched Weapons, No. 51 (Coulsdon, U.K.: Jane’s Information Group, 2008), pp. 56-57; Robert Hewson, “Teeth of the dragon,” Jane’s Defence Weekly, January 19, 2011, p. 23; Gordon and Komissarov, Chinese Air Power, p. 87; Gordon and Komissarov, Chinese Aircraft, pp. 106, 109.
49 ITAR-TASS, “Third regiment set of S-400 system to be supplied to RF Far East,” February 18, 2011, at http://itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?NewsID=15967286&PageNum=0 (February19, 2011); Duncan Lennox, ed., Jane’s Strategic Weapon Systems, No. 48 (Coulsdon, U.K.: Jane’s Information Group, 2008), p. 226. For more on joint Russian-Chinese development of SAM systems, see Lennox, Jane’s Strategic Weapon Systems, pp.222-26.
50 Dmitri Kósirev, “Los nuevos pilares de la amistad ruso-china,” RIA Novosti, March 6, 2011, at http://sp.rian.ru/opinion_analysis/20110306/148464828.html (March 6, 2011).
51 Johnson, “Russian experts skeptical about China’s new J-20,” p. 4.
52 Johnson, “Russian experts skeptical about China’s new J-20,” p. 4.
53 Kramnik, “The future of China’s fifth-generation stealth fighter.”
54 See the picture in https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgW-diqNeniJo0L1ewkYkVnRDjZNDF5D_Bn6yTICtr-eOdx65kWM8ZYF_ciIeNHQ7USpcu9SfQFkiavRx3tPt-XqkATytj5Km5i6Twgo8XAhBQ1Ppgn4MqT__PfPvPXIjEyk5v6Q3vsAoQ/s1600/j20_21.jpg (February 15, 2011). See also Feng, “My thoughts on J-20.”
55 ARMS-TASS, “Zapadnye eksperty polagaiot, chto pokazannyi obrazets, novogo kitaiskogo istrebitelia J-20 iavliaetsia demonstratorom.” See also the J-20’s drawings and estimated measurements in David Fulghum, Bill Sweetman, and Robert Wall, “Intel About China Flawed,” Aviation Week & Space Technology, January 10, 2011, p. 27.
56 Jackson, Jane’s All the World’s Aircraft 2006-2007, p. 497, 501.
57 See Mackenzie Eaglen and Lajos F. Szaszdi, “What Russia’s Stealth Fighter Developments Mean for America.”
58 Gordon, Sukhoi S-37 and Mikoyan MFI, p. 84; Paul Jackson, ed., Jane’s All the World’s Aircraft 2001-2002, 92nd ed. (Coulsdon, U.K.: Jane’s Information Group, 2006), p. 445.
59 Jackson, Jane’s All the World’s Aircraft 2001-2002, p. 400; Doug Richardson, Stealth Warplanes: Deception, Evasion, and Concealment in the Air (Osceola, Wis.: MBI Publishing Company, 2001), p. 124.
60 Jamie Hunter, Jane’s Aircraft Upgrades 2006-2007, 14th ed. (Coulsdon, U.K.: Jane’s Information Group, 2006), p. 485. See also Kopp and Goon, “Chengdu J-XX [J-20] Stealth Fighter Prototype: A Preliminary Assessment.”   
61 Martin S., “China’s J-20 Stealth Fighter: The Raptor’s Peer,” at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1EBztMJBhAs&feature=player_embedded in Carlo Kopp and Peter Goon, “Chengdu J-XX [J-20] Stealth Fighter Prototype: A Preliminary Assessment,” Air Power Australia Technical Report, January 3, 2011, at http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-J-XX-Prototype.html (January 25, 2011); Sweetman, “Chinese J-20 Stealth Fighter In Taxi Tests;” Wendell Minnick, “Photos of Chinese 5th-Generation Fighter Revealed,” DefenseNews, December 30, 2010, at http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=5341327 (January 25, 2011); “Stealth,” F22Fighter.com, at http://www.f22fighter.com/stealth.htm (January 25, 2011); David A. Fulghum and others, “Stealthy Chinese J-20 Vulnerable.”
62 Gordon and Komissarov, Chinese Air Power, pp. 381, 382; Sweetman, “Chinese J-20 Stealth Fighter In Taxi Tests;” Kopp and Goon, “Chengdu J-XX [J-20] Stealth Fighter Prototype: A Preliminary Assessment;” Martin S., “China’s J-20 Stealth Fighter: The Raptor’s Peer,” at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1EBztMJBhAs&feature=player_embedded in Kopp and Goon, “Chengdu J-XX [J-20] Stealth Fighter Prototype: A Preliminary Assessment;” Minnick, “Photos of Chinese 5th-Generation Fighter Revealed;” Minnick, “Photos of Chinese 5th-Generation Fighter Revealed;” David A. Fulghum and others, “Stealthy Chinese J-20 Vulnerable.”  
63 Gordon and Komissarov, Chinese Air Power, pp. 379, 381, 382.
64 Gordon and Komissarov, Chinese Air Power, p. 379.
65 Gordon and Komissarov, Chinese Air Power, pp. 379-80.
66 Gordon and Komissarov, Chinese Aircraft, p. 110; Gordon and Komissarov, Chinese Air Power, p. 381.
67 Gordon and Komissarov, Chinese Air Power, pp. 381, 380.
68 Gordon and Komissarov, Chinese Air Power, p. 382.
69 Gordon and Komissarov, Chinese Air Power, p. 382.
70 Siobhan Gorman, August Cole, and Yochi Dreazen, “Computer Spies Breach Fighter-Jet Project,” The Wall Street Journal, April 21, 2009, at http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124027491029837401.html (January 31, 2011).
71 Sweetman, “Chinese J-20 Stealth Fighter In Taxi Tests.”
72 Sweetman, “Chinese J-20 Stealth Fighter In Taxi Tests.”
73 BBC News, “China stealth fighter ‘copied parts from downed US jet,’” January 24, 2011, at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12266973 (January 24, 2011).
74 Associated Press, “China’s new stealth fighter may use US technology,” FlightAware, January 23, 2011, at http://flightaware.com/news/ap/Chinas-new-stealth-fighter-may-use-US-technology/3627 (January 31, 2011).
75 BBC News, “US spy for China Noshir Gowadia jailed for 32 years,” January 25, 2011, at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12272941 (January 25, 2011).
76 Jackson, Jane’s All the World’s Aircraft 2006-2007, p. 501.
77 The JH-7 is in the same category as the Russian Su-24 “Fencer.” See Jackson, Jane’s All the World’s Aircraft 2006-2007, p. 122.
78 Jackson, Jane’s All the World’s Aircraft 2006-2007, p. 497.
79 Kopp and Goon, “Chengdu J-XX [J-20] Stealth Fighter Prototype: A Preliminary Assessment.”
80 See maps in Kopp and Goon, “Chengdu J-XX [J-20] Stealth Fighter Prototype: A Preliminary Assessment;” This is Lincolnshire, “China tests new stealth fighter believed to have been designed to shoot down AWACS,” January 13, 2011, at http://www.thisislincolnshire.co.uk/news/China-tests-new-stealth-fighter-believed-designed-shoot-AWACS/article-3096778-detail/article.html (January 13, 2011).
81 Chris Mills, “J-20 Stealth Fighter: China’s First Strike Weapon,” Air Power Australia NOTAM, January 24, 2011, at http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-NOTAM-240111-1.html (February 26, 2011). 
82 See Eaglen and Szaszdi, “What Russia’s Stealth Fighter Developments Mean for America.”
83 Jackson, Jane’s All the World’s Aircraft 2006-2007, p. 497-98.
84 Karnozov, “Chengdu J-20. China’s tool to ram ‘cheese boxes on rafts.’”
85 Klaus Huenecke, Modern Combat Aircraft Design (Annapolis, Md.: Naval Institute Press, 1987), p. 37.
86 Karnozov, “Chengdu J-20. China’s tool to ram ‘cheese boxes on rafts.’”
87 John P. Fielding, Introduction to Aircraft Design (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999), p. 44. 
88 Fielding, Introduction to Aircraft Design, pp. 42-43.
89 Karnozov, “Chengdu J-20. China’s tool to ram ‘cheese boxes on rafts.’”
90 Karnozov, “Chengdu J-20. China’s tool to ram ‘cheese boxes on rafts.’”
91 Fielding, Introduction to Aircraft Design, pp. 44, 43; Karnozov, “Chengdu J-20. China’s tool to ram ‘cheese boxes on rafts.’”
92 Dave Majumdar, “J-20 a ‘wake-up call,’ former intel chief says,” Air Force Times, February 13, 2011, at http://www.airforcetimes.com/news/2011/02/air-force-deptula-calls-j20-a-wake-up-call-021311w/ (February 24, 2011).
93 Capaccio, “China’s J-20 Stealth Jet Meant to Counter F-22, F-35, U.S. Analysis Says.”
94 Fulghum, Sweetman, and Wall, “Intel About China Flawed,” p. 27; Kopp and Goon, “Chengdu J-XX [J-20] Stealth Fighter Prototype: A Preliminary Assessment.”
95 Hewson, Jane’s Air Launched Weapons, pp. 56, 58, 103.
96 The outline of what looks like a J-20 is seen on the left-side main screen panel. See the picture of the flight control panel at http://sitelife.aviationweek.com/ver1.0/Content/images/store/10/7/2a7d1513-74d2-4658-875e-b13b6b065bf4.Full.jpg in Bill Sweetman, “Every Day, It’s a-Getting Closer,” Ares - A Defense Technology Blog in Aviation Week, January 3, 2011, at http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/blogs/defense/index.jsp?plckController=Blog&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&newspaperUserId=27ec4a53-dcc8-42d0-bd3a-01329aef79a7&plckPostId=Blog%3a27ec4a53-dcc8-42d0-bd3a-01329aef79a7Post%3a3622be78-8ffe-4e81-b5a1-b4436e9b53e2&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest (January 26, 2011); Fulghum, Sweetman, and Wall, “Intel About China Flawed,” pp. 26-27; Hewson, Jane’s Air Launched Weapons, p. 58.
97 Hewson, Jane’s Air Launched Weapons, p. 103.
98 Mader, “Hype from the ‘Middle-Kingdom’ – China Allows Spotters to Web-Leak its First Stealth Jet,” p. 11; Hewson, Jane’s Air Launched Weapons, p. 88.
99 Robert Hewson, “China’s SD-10 claimed to be a dual-mode AAM,” Jane’s Defence Weekly, December 1, 2010, p. 8.
100 Yefim Gordon, Russian Air Power: Current Organization and Aircraft of all Russian Air Forces (Hinckley, U.K.: Midland Publishing, 2009), pp. 335-36.
101 Gordon, Russian Air Power, pp. 335-36; Hewson, Jane’s Air Launched Weapons, pp. 85-86.
102 Hewson, “Teeth of the dragon,” p. 23.
103 Hewson, “China’s SD-10 claimed to be a dual-mode AAM,” p. 8. See also Hewson, Jane’s Air Launched Weapons, pp. 56-57.
104 Hewson, “Teeth of the dragon,” p. 23.
105 Hewson, “Teeth of the dragon,” pp. 24-25. See the illustration in “Imageshack – chmissiles.jpg,” ImageShack, at http://img52.imageshack.us/f/chmissiles.jpg/ (March 6, 2011) in ImageShack, at http://img52.imageshack.us/i/chmissiles.jpg/ (March 6, 2011). 
106 Hewson, “Teeth of the dragon,” p. 24; “Imageshack – chmissiles.jpg.”
107 Hewson, “Teeth of the dragon,” p. 24; “Imageshack – chmissiles.jpg;” Fulghum, Sweetman, and Wall, “Intel About China Flawed,” p. 27.
108 Hewson, “Teeth of the dragon,” p. 24; “Imageshack – chmissiles.jpg;” Fulghum, Sweetman, and Wall, “Intel About China Flawed,” p. 27.
109 Hewson, Jane’s Air Launched Weapons, p. 188; Majumdar, “J-20 a ‘wake-up call,’ former intel chief says.” Feng wrote that there are “reports of different 5th generation AAMs [air-to-air missiles] in advanced development.” See Feng, “J-20 had its first flight, what now?”
110 Hewson, Jane’s Air Launched Weapons, p. 88.
111 Hewson, “Teeth of the dragon,” p. 24; “Imageshack – chmissiles.jpg;” Fulghum, Sweetman, and Wall, “Intel About China Flawed,” p. 27.
112 Hewson, Jane’s Air Launched Weapons, pp. 82-84.
113 Gordon, Russian Air Power, p. 336.
114 Kopp and Goon, “Chengdu J-XX [J-20] Stealth Fighter Prototype: A Preliminary Assessment;” This is Lincolnshire, “China tests new stealth fighter believed to have been designed to shoot down AWACS;” Majumdar, “J-20 a ‘wake-up call,’ former intel chief says;” Martin Streetly, ed., Jane’s Electronic Mission Aircraft, No. 21 (Coulsdon, U.K.: Jane’s Information Group, 2008), pp.312-15; Jackson, Jane’s All the World’s Aircraft 2006-2007, pp. 669-70, 838; Hewson, Jane’s Air Launched Weapons, pp. 104-5. See also Eaglen and Szaszdi, “What Russia’s Stealth Fighter Developments Mean for America.”
115 Kopp and Goon, “Chengdu J-XX [J-20] Stealth Fighter Prototype: A Preliminary Assessment;”
Carlo Kopp and Martin Andrew, “PLA Guided Bombs,” Air Power Australia Technical Report, August 2009, Updated January 2011, at http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-PLA-GBU.html (January 26, 2011); Hewson, “Teeth of the dragon,” p. 25; Gordon and Komissarov, Chinese Air Power, p. 200; Hewson, Jane’s Air Launched Weapons, pp. 413-14.
116 Kopp and Andrew, “PLA Guided Bombs;” “LeiShi-6 Precision Guided Glide Bomb,” SinoDefence.com, October 26, 2008, at http://www.sinodefence.com/airforce/weapon/ls6.asp (January 26, 2011); Gordon and Komissarov, Chinese Air Power, p. 199; Hewson, “Teeth of the dragon,” pp. 25-26; idem, Jane’s Air Launched Weapons, pp. 413-14.
117 “Fei Teng Guided Bombs (FT-1, FT-2, FT-3, FT-5) (China), Bombs – Precision and guided munitions,” January 13, 2010, at http://www.janes.com/articles/Janes-Air-Launched-Weapons/Fei-Teng-Guided-Bombs-FT-1-FT-2-FT-3-FT-5-China.html (January 26, 2011); “LeiShi-6 Precision Guided Glide Bomb;” Duncan Lennox, ed., Jane’s Strategic Weapon Systems, No. 48 (Coulsdon, U.K.: Jane’s Information Group, 2008), p. 9.  On the Beidou (“North Dipper” in Chinese, the group of stars known in the U.S. as “The Big Dipper”) satellite navigation system see David Baker, ed., Jane’s Space Directory 2005-2006, 21st ed. (Coulsdon, U.K.: Jane’s Information Group, 2005), p. 691; GlobalSecurity.org, “Beidou (Big Dipper),” at http://www.globalsecurity.org/space/world/china/beidou.htm (February 9, 2011); Zhou Chang, “The Beidou Satellite Navigation System,” China Today, July 2010, at http://www.chinatoday.com.cn/ctenglish/se/txt/2010-07/05/content_283194.htm (February 9, 2011).
118 Hewson, Jane’s Air Launched Weapons, pp. 145-47, 185-87,
119 Hewson, Jane’s Air Launched Weapons, p. 188; Majumdar, “J-20 a ‘wake-up call,’ former intel chief says.”
120 The YJ-12 is said to have dimensions like the YJ-8 anti-ship missile. See Hewson, Jane’s Air Launched Weapons, pp. 188, 194-95.
121 Sweetman, “Chinese J-20 Stealth Fighter In Taxi Tests;” Feng, “J-20 had its first flight, what now?”
122 In the outline of what looks like a J-20 seen on the left-side main screen panel of a glass cockpit, and flanking what seems like four missiles in the main weapon bay, one can see to port and starboard what may be interpreted as two additional missiles, which could be short-range air-to-air missiles. See the picture of the flight control panel at http://sitelife.aviationweek.com/ver1.0/Content/images/store/10/7/2a7d1513-74d2-4658-875e-b13b6b065bf4.Full.jpg in Bill Sweetman, “Every Day, It’s a-Getting Closer.” See also Fulghum, Sweetman, and Wall, “Intel About China Flawed,” pp. 26-27.
123 Hewson, Jane’s Air Launched Weapons, pp. 10-12; Feng, “J-20 had its first flight, what now?” See also Hewson, “Teeth of the dragon,” p. 25.
124 Hewson, “Teeth of the dragon,” p. 24; “Imageshack – chmissiles.jpg.”
125 Jackson, Jane’s All the World’s Aircraft 2006-2007, pp. 99, 501.
126 Fulghum, “Numbers Matter,” p. 21.
127 See the picture of the flight control panel at http://sitelife.aviationweek.com/ver1.0/Content/images/store/10/7/2a7d1513-74d2-4658-875e-b13b6b065bf4.Full.jpg in Bill Sweetman, “Every Day, It’s a-Getting Closer.”
128 GlobalSecurity.org, “F-22 Raptor Weapons,” at http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/aircraft/f-22-weapons.htm (February 1, 2011).
129 Sweetman, “Chinese J-20 Stealth Fighter In Taxi Tests.”
130 Hewson, Jane’s Air Launched Weapons, pp.210-12; Eric Wertheim, ed., The Naval Institute Guide to Combat Fleets of the World: Their Ships, Aircraft, and Systems, 15th ed. (Annapolis, Md.: Naval Institute Press, 2007), p. 115.
131 Page, “Test Flight Signals Jet Has Reached New Stage;” Majumdar, “J-20 a ‘wake-up call,’ former intel chief says;” Kopp, “The Strategic Impact of China’s J-XX [J-20] Stealth Fighter.”
132 On the U.S. air-launched, F-15 ASAT program, see Baker, ed., Jane’s Space Directory 2005-2006, p. 660. See also Kopp, “The Strategic Impact of China’s J-XX [J-20] Stealth Fighter.” 
133 Majumdar, “J-20 a ‘wake-up call,’ former intel chief says;” Yu Miao, “Hu confirms stealth jet test.” See also Kopp, “The Strategic Impact of China’s J-XX [J-20] Stealth Fighter.”
134 Alexander Neill is the Head of the Asia Security Programme at the Royal United Services Institute of London. Alexander Neill, “Viewpoint: A new Sino-US high-tech arms race?,” BBC News, January 11, 2011, at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12154991 (January 11, 2011).
135 Martin S., “China’s J-20 Stealth Fighter: The Raptor’s Peer,” at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1EBztMJBhAs&feature=player_embedded in Carlo Kopp and Peter Goon, “Chengdu J-XX [J-20] Stealth Fighter Prototype: A Preliminary Assessment.”
136 Kopp and Goon, “Chengdu J-XX [J-20] Stealth Fighter Prototype: A Preliminary Assessment.”
137 Kopp and Goon, “Chengdu J-XX [J-20] Stealth Fighter Prototype: A Preliminary Assessment.”
138 Jackson, Jane’s All the World’s Aircraft 2006-2007, p. 115.
139 Gordon and Komissarov, Chinese Air Power, pp. 72-73.
140 Martin S., “China’s J-20 Stealth Fighter: The Raptor’s Peer,” at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1EBztMJBhAs&feature=player_embedded in Carlo Kopp and Peter Goon, “Chengdu J-XX [J-20] Stealth Fighter Prototype: A Preliminary Assessment.”
141 “Any questions regarding Typhoon Fighter?,” at http://translate.google.com/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Feurofighter.airpower.at%2Ffaq.htm&langpair=de%7Cen&hl=de&ie=UTF-8, Google translation from German of “Sie haben Fragen zum Eurofighter Typhoon?,” www.airpower.at, at http://eurofighter.airpower.at/faq.htm (February 6, 2011).  
142 Kopp and Goon, “Chengdu J-XX [J-20] Stealth Fighter Prototype: A Preliminary Assessment;” David A. Fulghum and others, “Stealthy Chinese J-20 Vulnerable.” See also the photograph of the J-20 in http://www.ausairpower.net/PLA-AF/Chengdu-J-XX-VLO-Prototype-27S.jpg in Kopp and Goon, “Chengdu J-XX [J-20] Stealth Fighter Prototype: A Preliminary Assessment.”   
143 See Eaglen and Szaszdi, “What Russia’s Stealth Fighter Developments Mean for America.”
144 Nicolai Novichkov, “Russian Scientists Created Revolutionary Low Observability Technologies,” ITAR-TASS, January 20, 1999, in “MIG-39/1.42 MFI (plasma stealth),” Warfare.ru, at http://warfare.ru/?linkid=1608&catid=255 (February 7, 2011); Nicolai Novichkov, “Russian Scientists Created Revolutionary Low Observability Technologies,” ITAR-TASS, January 20, 1999, trans. Philip Kaploun, at http://blockyourid.com/~gbpprorg/mil/radar/rusLO_ENG.html (February 7, 2011); Richardson, Stealth Warplanes, p. 48.
145 Novichkov, “Russian Scientists Created Revolutionary Low Observability Technologies;” Richardson, Stealth Warplanes, p. 48.
146 Novichkov, “Russian Scientists Created Revolutionary Low Observability Technologies;” Richardson, Stealth Warplanes, p. 48.
147 Feng, “The present and the future direction of J-10,” Blogger.com, February 21, 2011, at http://china-pla.blogspot.com/2011/02/present-and-future-direction-of-j-10.html (February 26, 2011).
148 Richardson, Stealth Warplanes, pp. 48-49.
149 Richardson, Stealth Warplanes, p. 48.
150 BBC News, “US spy for China Noshir Gowadia jailed for 32 years.”
151 Hewson, Jane’s Air Launched Weapons, p. 250.
152 RIA Novosti, “Pakistán prueba con éxito misil crucero capaz de portar ojiva nuclear,” February 10, 2011, at http://sp.rian.ru/Defensa/20110210/148342465.html (February 11, 2011).
153 See also Feng, “J-20 had its first flight, what now?”
154 Richardson, Stealth Warplanes, p. 48.
155 See Eaglen and Szaszdi, “What Russia’s Stealth Fighter Developments Mean for America.”
156 Gordon and Komissarov, Chinese Air Power, p. 382.
157 Jackson, Jane’s All the World’s Aircraft 2006-2007, p. 117; RIA Novosti, “New Su-35 fighter can attack eight targets simultaneously,” August 24, 2009, at http://en.rian.ru/video/20090824/155909372.html (February 28, 2011).
158 Jackson, Jane’s All the World’s Aircraft 2006-2007, p. 116; Hunter, Jane’s Aircraft Upgrades 2006-2007, p. 653.
159 Martin Streetly, ed., Jane’s Radar and Electronic Warfare Systems 2008-2009, 20th ed. (Coulsdon, U.K.: Jane’s Information Group, 2008), p. 242-43; Edward Downs, ed., Jane’s Avionics 2006-2007, 25th ed. (Coulsdon, U.K.: Jane’s Information Group, 2006), pp. 675-76.
160 Jackson, Jane’s All the World’s Aircraft 2006-2007, p. 98; Gordon and Komissarov, Chinese Aircraft, p. 95.
161 Gordon, Sukhoi Su-27, p. 286; Hunter, Jane’s Aircraft Upgrades 2006-2007, p. 704;
162 Mackenzie M. Eaglen and Lajos F. Szaszdi, “The Growing Air Power Fighter Gap: Implications for U.S. National Security,” Heritage Foundation Backgrounder No. 2295, July 7, 2009, at http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2009/07/the-growingair-power-fighter-gap-implications-for-us-national-security; Gordon and Komissarov, Chinese Air Power, p. 66; Wolf, “New Chinese fighter jet expected by 2018: U.S. intelligence.”
163 Jackson, Jane’s All the World’s Aircraft 2006-2007, p. 501; Vladimir Karnozov, “New Su-30MK3 flight tested,” Flightglobal, June 1, 2004, at http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2004/06/01/182372/new-su-30mk3-flight-tested.html (February 18, 2011); GlobalSecurity.org, “Chinese Aircraft – J-11 [Su-27 FLANKER],” at http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/j-11.htm (February 18, 2011).
164 Karnozov, “New Su-30MK3 flight tested;” Jackson, Jane’s All the World’s Aircraft 2006-2007, p. 501
165 See Eaglen and Szaszdi, “The Growing Air Power Fighter Gap: Implications for U.S. National Security;” International Institute for Strategic Studies, Military Balance 2010, pp. 40, 45.
166 Nabi Abdullaev, “Russia May Sell Su-35s to China,” DefenseNews, November 17, 2010, at http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=5062917 (November 20, 2010).
167 Streetly, Jane’s Radar and Electronic Warfare Systems 2008-2009, p. 240; Hunter, Jane’s Aircraft Upgrades 2006-2007, pp. 704-5; Downs, Jane’s Avionics 2006-2007, pp. 665-66, 672; Jackson, Jane’s All the World’s Aircraft 2006-2007, pp. 495, 501.
168 Gordon, Sukhoi Su-27, pp. 111-15; Janes.com, “N135 Irbis Fire Control Radar (FCR) (Russian Federation), Airborne radar systems,” Jane’s Avionics, December 2, 2010, at http://www.janes.com/articles/Janes-Avionics/N135-Irbis-Fire-Control-Radar-FCR-Russian-Federation.html (February 17, 2011).
169 Streetly, Jane’s Radar and Electronic Warfare Systems 2008-2009, pp. 240-41.
170 Carlo Kopp, “Assessing the Tikhomirov NIIP L-Band Active Electronically Steered Array,” Air Power Australia Analysis,  September 14, 2009, at http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-2009-06.html (July 22, 2010); Vijainder K. Thakur, “Tikhomirov NIIP AESA radar,” Knol, December 13, 2009, at http://knol.google.com/k/vijainder-k-thakur/tikhomirov-niip-aesa-radar/yo54fmdhy2mq/34# (February 17, 2011).
171 Thakur, “Tikhomirov NIIP AESA radar.” 
172 Thakur, “Tikhomirov NIIP AESA radar.”
173 David Donald, “T-50 completes early flight and bench tests,” AINonline, July 19, 2010, at http://www.ainonline.com/news/single-news-page/article/t-50-completes-early-flight-and-bench-tests-25453/ (March 4, 2011). See also Eaglen and Szaszdi, “What Russia’s Stealth Fighter Developments Mean for America.”
174 Kopp, “Assessing the Tikhomirov NIIP L-Band Active Electronically Steered Array.”
175 Kopp, “Assessing the Tikhomirov NIIP L-Band Active Electronically Steered Array.”
176 Bill Sweetman, “Low-Cost and Effective AEW Systems Find Buyers,” Aviation Week, February 13, 2008, at http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_generic.jsp?channel=dti&id=news/DTIAEW.xml&headline=Low-Cost%20and%20Effective%20AEW%20Systems%20Find%20Buyers (February 18, 2011).
177 Sweetman, “Low-Cost and Effective AEW Systems Find Buyers.”
178 Kopp, “Assessing the Tikhomirov NIIP L-Band Active Electronically Steered Array;” Streetly, Jane’s Radar and Electronic Warfare Systems 2008-2009, p. 239.
179 Streetly, Jane’s Radar and Electronic Warfare Systems 2008-2009, pp. 239, 241.
180 Streetly, Jane’s Radar and Electronic Warfare Systems 2008-2009, pp. 240-41; Gordon, Sukhoi Su-27, p. 175.
181 See Eaglen and Szaszdi, “What Russia’s Stealth Fighter Developments Mean for America.”
182 Streetly, Jane’s Radar and Electronic Warfare Systems 2008-2009, p. 240.
183 Streetly, Jane’s Radar and Electronic Warfare Systems 2008-2009, p. 243; Gordon, Sukhoi Su-27, p. 286.
184 Carlo Kopp, “Phazotron Zhuk AE/ASE: Assessing Russia’s First Fighter AESA,” Air Power Australia Technical Report, July 19, 2008, at http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-Zhuk-AE-Analysis.html (February 19, 2011).
185 See the entry on the Zhuk-Ph fire-control radar in Streetly, Jane’s Radar and Electronic Warfare Systems 2008-2009, p. 242.
186 Fulghum, Sweetman, and Wall, “Intel About China Flawed,” p. 26.
187 Phillip E. Pace, Detecting and Classifying Low Probability of Intercept Radar, 2nd ed. (Boston, Mass.: Artech House, 2009), p. xxi.
188 See Eaglen and Szaszdi, “What Russia’s Stealth Fighter Developments Mean for America.”
189 Gordon and Komissarov, Chinese Air Power, p. 382.
190 See Eaglen and Szaszdi, “What Russia’s Stealth Fighter Developments Mean for America.”
191 See Martin S., “China’s J-20 Stealth Fighter: The Raptor’s Peer,” at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1EBztMJBhAs&feature=player_embedded in Carlo Kopp and Peter Goon, “Chengdu J-XX [J-20] Stealth Fighter Prototype: A Preliminary Assessment.” See also another photo of the simulator in https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCEzrai9QBIyLI8j8tj_M43DH54456sWSriEkQrzWwJRDzs_fxcS-E2LupjM-jnwK556BvvR-nkDtkh5Bive8XRZ1IVQFpCpKtAxtTCo_P3nY2Q33ODwSW019pr6yKHY374dHURZcDnsTL/s1600/112ogn.jpg in Stevem, “Possible Cockpit Photos of Chinese J-20 Stealth Fighter,” China Defense Blog, December 29, 2010, at http://china-defense.blogspot.com/2010/12/possible-cockpit-photos-of-chinese-j-20.html (February 22, 2011).  
192 See Martin S., “China’s J-20 Stealth Fighter: The Raptor’s Peer,” at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1EBztMJBhAs&feature=player_embedded in Carlo Kopp and Peter Goon, “Chengdu J-XX [J-20] Stealth Fighter Prototype: A Preliminary Assessment.”
193 See the second and third photos of the J-20 in Carlo Kopp and Peter Goon, “Chengdu J-XX [J-20] Stealth Fighter Prototype: A Preliminary Assessment.”
194 Gordon and Komissarov, Chinese Air Power, p. 375.
195 See Eaglen and Szaszdi, “What Russia’s Stealth Fighter Developments Mean for America.”
196 Page, “Test Flight Signals Jet Has Reached New Stage.”
197 Gordon and Komissarov, Chinese Air Power, p. 382.
198 GlobalSecurity.org, “Beidou (Big Dipper);” Zhou Chang, “The Beidou Satellite Navigation System.”
199 Page, “Test Flight Signals Jet Has Reached New Stage.”
200 Wendell Minnick, “Photos of Chinese 5th-Generation Fighter Revealed,” DefenseNews, December 30, 2010, at http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=5341327 (January 25, 2011).
201 See Eaglen and Szaszdi, “What Russia’s Stealth Fighter Developments Mean for America.”
202 Sweetman, “Chinese J-20 Stealth Fighter In Taxi Tests;” Mader, “Hype from the ‘Middle-Kingdom’ – China Allows Spotters to Web-Leak its First Stealth Jet,” p. 11; Karnozov, “Chengdu J-20. China’s tool to ram ‘cheese boxes on rafts;’” Jackson, Jane’s All the World’s Aircraft 2006-2007, p. 497.
203 Gordon, Russian Air Power, p. 113; Jackson, Jane’s All the World’s Aircraft 2006-2007, p. 497.
204 David Donald, “Chinese J-20 Stealth Fighter Takes Flight,” AINonline, January 11, 2011, at http://www.ainonline.com/news/single-news-page/article/chinese-j-20-stealth-fighter-takes-flight-28172/ (January 11, 2011); Feng, “J-20 had its first flight, what now?;” Karnozov, “Chengdu J-20. China’s tool to ram ‘cheese boxes on rafts.’”
205 Gordon and Komissarov, Chinese Air Power, pp. 72-73, 80.
206 Gordon and Komissarov, Chinese Air Power, p. 73.
207 RIA Novosti, “Airshow China-2010: Can it boost China’s aircraft industry?,” November 18, 2010, at http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20101118/161387853.html (November 19, 2011); Sweetman, “Chinese J-20 Stealth Fighter In Taxi Tests.”
208 Gordon and Komissarov, Chinese Air Power, p. 379;
209 ARMS-TASS, “Zapadnye eksperty polagaiot, chto pokazannyi obrazets, novogo kitaiskogo istrebitelia J-20 iavliaetsia demonstratorom;” Jackson, Jane’s All the World’s Aircraft 2006-2007, p. 799; Miller, Lockheed Martin F/A-22 Raptor, p. 108.
210 Kramnik, “The future of China’s fifth-generation stealth fighter.”
211 Gerard Keijsper, Joint Strike Fighter: Design and Development of the International Aircraft, (Barnsley, U.K.: Pen & Sword, 2007), pp. 208, 205; Jackson, Jane’s All the World’s Aircraft 2006-2007, p. 808.
212 See Eaglen and Szaszdi, “What Russia’s Stealth Fighter Developments Mean for America.”
213 Karnozov, “Chengdu J-20. China’s tool to ram ‘cheese boxes on rafts;’” Gordon, Yakovlev Yak-36, Yak-38 & Yak-41, p. 125; Gordon, Komissarov and Komissarov, OKB Yakovlev, pp.343-44.
214 See Eaglen and Szaszdi, “What Russia’s Stealth Fighter Developments Mean for America.”
215 See Eaglen and Szaszdi, “What Russia’s Stealth Fighter Developments Mean for America.”
216 Gordon, Yakovlev Yak-36, Yak-38 & Yak-41, p. 122.
217 Jackson, Jane’s All the World’s Aircraft 2006-2007, pp. 497, 501; Gordon and Komissarov, Chinese Air Power, p. 80.
218 Jackson, Jane’s All the World’s Aircraft 2006-2007, p. 97.
219 RIA Novosti, “Russia to sell additional RD-93 jet engines to China,” November 16, 2010, at http://en.rian.ru/mlitary_news/20101116/161360534.html (November 16, 2010); Interfax, “New contract in the making to deliver 100 aircraft engines to China,” November 16, 2010, at http://www.interfax.com/newsinf.asp?pg=8&id=202324 (November 20, 2010).
220 Jackson, Jane’s All the World’s Aircraft 2006-2007, p. 98; Interfax, “New contract in the making to deliver 100 aircraft engines to China;” Feng, “The present and the future direction of J-10;” Dmitry  Vasiliev, “Russian Arms Trade in 2009: Figures, Trends and Projections,” Moscow Defense Brief 1 (2010): p. 11, at http://www.eastviewpress.com/documents/MDB%20final_small.pdf (February 26, 2011).
221 Jackson, Jane’s All the World’s Aircraft 2006-2007, p. 98.
222 Feng, “The present and the future direction of J-10.” 
223 Interfax, “New contract in the making to deliver 100 aircraft engines to China.”
224 RIA Novosti, “Airshow China-2010: Can it boost China’s aircraft industry?”
225 The author of this article uses a blogger’s pen name and the text appears to have been translated from Chinese using translation software. See China Military, “Russian media said the Chinese J-11B stealth ability superior performance three times in the Soviet Union -27,” China Military Report in Blogger.com, March 26, 2009, at http://wuxinghongqi.blogspot.com/2009/03/russian-media-said-chinese-j-11b.html (January 10, 2011).
226 RIA Novosti, “Airshow China-2010: Can it boost China’s aircraft industry?;” Gordon and Komissarov, Chinese Air Power, p. 87.
227 RIA Novosti, “China quiere comprar a Rusia sistemas de misiles S-400 y motores de avión 117C,” November 23, 2010, at http://sp.rian.ru/Defensa/20101123/147939221.html (November 25, 2010); RIA Novosti, “Russia ready to sell Su-35 fighter jets to China,” November 16, 2010, at http://en.rian.ru/mlitary_news/20101116/161359301.html (February 16, 2011).
228 Gordon, Sukhoi Su-27, p. 175.
229 Jackson, Jane’s All the World’s Aircraft 2006-2007, p. 497.
230 Russia-Ic, “New Engine for Air Fighters,” December 25, 2007, at http://russia-ic.com/news/show/5446 (November 25, 2010).
231 See Eaglen and Szaszdi, “What Russia’s Stealth Fighter Developments Mean for America.”
232 Gordon, Sukhoi Su-27, p. 175; “Russia to Test Stealthy Fifth Generation Sukhoi T-50 Fighter Jet,” Pravda, January 28, 2010, at http://english.pravda.ru/russia/economics/28-01-2010/111914-fifth_generation-0/ (February 17, 2011).
233 Gordon and Komissarov, Chinese Air Power, p. 382.
234 Kopp and Goon, “Chengdu J-XX [J-20] Stealth Fighter Prototype: A Preliminary Assessment;” David A. Fulghum and others, “Stealthy Chinese J-20 Vulnerable;” Feng, “J-20 had its first flight, what now?”
235 Johnson, “China tests stealth fighter as Gates meets with Hu.”
236 Mader, “Hype from the ‘Middle-Kingdom’ – China Allows Spotters to Web-Leak its First Stealth Jet,” p. 11; Feng, “J-20 had its first flight, what now?”
237 David Axe, “Old School Jet Retooled to Slay Stealth Fighters,” Wired.com, January 14, 2011, at http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/01/old-school-jet/ (February 1, 2011).
238 Downs, Jane’s Avionics 2006-2007, p. 690; Streetly, Jane’s Radar and Electronic Warfare Systems 2008-2009, pp. 246-47.
239 Axe, “Old School Jet Retooled to Slay Stealth Fighters.”
240 Axe, “Old School Jet Retooled to Slay Stealth Fighters.”
241 David A. Fulghum and others, “Stealthy Chinese J-20 Vulnerable.”
242 Pace, Detecting and Classifying Low Probability of Intercept Radar, p. xxi.
243 Eaglen and Szaszdi, “The Growing Air Power Fighter Gap: Implications for U.S. National Security;” Axe, “Old School Jet Retooled to Slay Stealth Fighters;” Jane’s.com, “AN/APG-82 (United States), Airborne fire-control radars,” Jane’s Radar and Electronic Warfare Systems, February 3, 2011, at http://www.janes.com/articles/Janes-Radar-and-Electronic-Warfare-Systems/AN-APG-82-United-States.html (February 19, 2011); Boeing, “F-15E Strike Eagle,” September 2010, at http://www.boeing.com/defense-space/military/f15/docs/F-15E_overview.pdf (February 19, 2011); Hunter, Jane’s Aircraft Upgrades 2006-2007, pp. 182-83; International Institute for Strategic Studies, Military Balance 2010, pp. 40, 45; Military Technology, World Defence Almanac 2009, p. 64.
244 Eaglen and Szaszdi, “The Growing Air Power Fighter Gap: Implications for U.S. National Security;” Boeing, “F-15E Strike Eagle.”
245 F-22A production will end with 187 aircraft. However, there will be 186 Raptors, because in Alaska in November 2010 there “was the first crash to have involved an active duty F-22 since the type’s entry into frontline squadron service.” See Craig Hoyle, “US Air Force confirms F-22 pilot died in crash,” Flight International in Flightglobal, November 22, 2010, at http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2010/11/22/350022/us-air-force-confirms-f-22-pilot-died-in-crash.html (February 19, 2011). See also Robert Wall, “Rescue Teams Sent To F-22 Crash Site,” Aviation Week, November 18, 2010, at http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_channel.jsp?channel=defense&id=news/awx/2010/11/17/awx_11_17_2010_p0-270608.xml (February 19, 2011).
246 Axe, “Old School Jet Retooled to Slay Stealth Fighters.”
247 See Eaglen and Szaszdi, “The Growing Air Power Fighter Gap: Implications for U.S. National Security.”
248 Johnson, “China tests stealth fighter as Gates meets with Hu;” Fulghum, “Numbers Matter,” p. 21.
249 Johnson, “China tests stealth fighter as Gates meets with Hu;” Fulghum, “Numbers Matter,” p. 21; Streetly, Jane’s Electronic Mission Aircraft, pp. 312-14. On the U.S. Navy’s EP-3E Aries II electronic reconnaissance plane, see BBC News, “Inside the US spy plane,” April 4, 2001, at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/1255815.stm (March 3, 2011).
250 BBC News, “US seeks to expand military presence in Asia,” November 7, 2010, at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11705355 (January 11, 2011); BBC News, “japan sends jets as China planes near disputed islands,” March 3, 2011, at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12632042 (March 3, 2011); RIA Novosti, “Japan to hold naval drills involving U.S. warships in East China Sea on Monday,” January 10, 2011, at http://en.rian.ru/world/20110110/162086646.html (January 10, 2011); BBC News, “Japan defence review warns of China’s military might,” December 17, 2010, at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12015362 (January 10, 2011); BBC News, “Robert Gates in China: Beijing seeks to ease US fears,” January 10, 2011, at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12146922 (January 10, 2011).
251 David A. Fulghum and Robert Wall, “Weapons Migrate From China to Afghanistan,” Aviation Week & Space Technology, December 10, 2010, at http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_generic.jsp?channel=awst&id=news%2Fawst%2F2010%2F12%2F13%2FAW_12_13_2010_p25-275120.xml (February 27, 2011); Bill Gertz, “Inside the Ring: China arming terrorists,” The Washington Times, June 15, 2007, in Johnib, “China Arming Iran, Iran To Terrorists, Chinese Weapons Used Against U.S. Troops,” Peace and Freedom, at http://johnib.wordpress.com/2007/06/15/china-arming-iran-iran-to-terrorists-cinese-weapons-used-against-us-troops/ (February 27, 2011); Philip Smucker, “Taliban uses weapons made in China, Iran,” The Washington Times, June 5, 2007, in Johnib, “China Arming Iran, Iran To Terrorists, Chinese Weapons Used Against U.S. Troops,” Peace and Freedom, at http://johnib.wordpress.com/2007/06/15/china-arming-iran-iran-to-terrorists-cinese-weapons-used-against-us-troops/ (February 27, 2011). 
252 Wolf, “New Chinese fighter jet expected by 2018: U.S. intelligence.”
253 Kenji Minemura and Yusuke Murayama, “China could deploy stealth jet by 2017,” asashi.com, January 6, 2011, http://www.asahi.com/english/TKY201101050198.html (January 9, 2011).
254 John Pomfret, “Beijing claims ‘indisputable sovereignty’ over South China Sea,” The Washington Post, July 31, 2010, at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/30/AR2010073005664.html (March 5, 2011).
255 See the picture of the island with the landing strip in sudoku135, “Woody Island (thuoc quan dao Hoàng Sa – VIET NAM),” Flickr, January 17, 2008, at http://www.flickr.com/photos/21188559@N06/2198647321/in/photostream/ (March 6, 2011); and at  http://vm.nthu.edu.tw/southsea/images/west.big.jpg in National Tsing Hua University, “The Paracel Islands,” Discovering the South China Sea, at http://vm.nthu.edu.tw/southsea/english.west.htm (March 5, 2011).
256 Itu Aba Island is known in Taiwan as Taiping Island and it is the largest of the Spratly Islands. See Shih Hsiu-chuan, Hsu Shao-hsuan, and Jimmy Chuang, “President visits disputed islands,” Taipei Times, February 3, 2008, at http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2008/02/03/2003400014 (March 6, 2011). See a photo of Itu Aba Island in sudoku135, “Itu Aba Island (thuoc quan dao Truong Sa – VIET NAM),” Flickr, January 17, 2008, at http://www.flickr.com/photos/21188559@N06/2199416836/in/photostream/ (March 6, 2011). On Thitu Island see “Spratley,” (sic) Dangerous Ground, April 10, 2005, at http://www.hueybravo.net/spratley.htm (March 5, 2011). See the photo of Thitu Island with its airstrip at sudoku135, “Thitu Island (thuoc quan dao Truong Sa – VIET NAM),” Flickr, January 17, 2008, at http://www.flickr.com/photos/21188559@N06/2198636627/in/photostream/ (March 6, 2011); and at http://www.hueybravo.net/images/Spratley/pagasa.gif in “Spratley,” (sic) Dangerous Ground, April 10, 2005, at http://www.hueybravo.net/spratley.htm (March 5, 2011). Both Thitu and Itu Aba Islands are in the north of the Spratly Islands. See a map of the Spratly Islands depicting the various national (Vietnamese, Chinese, Filipino, Taiwanese, Malaysian) claims at http://www.maps.nfo.ph/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/Spratly-Island-Map.jpg in “Spratly Island Map,” Philippine Maps, February 3, 2011, at http://www.maps.nfo.ph/spratly-island-maps-with-flags/spratly-island-map/ (March 5, 2011). 
257 See map at http://community.middlebury.edu/~scs/maps/sealanes.gif inDavid Rosenberg, ed., “Major Asia-Pacific Shipping Lanes,” The South China Sea, at http://community.middlebury.edu/~scs/maps_images_economy.htm (March 6, 2011).
258 See Eaglen and Szaszdi, “What Russia’s Stealth Fighter Developments Mean for America.”
259 See Boeing’s F-15SE PowerPoint presentation in Boeing, “F-15 Silent Eagle,” 2009, at http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:n3OBfV69oyAJ:www.slideshare.net/TheDEWLine/silent-eagle-media-briefdoc+Silent+Eagle+Media+Brief.Doc&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&source=www.google.com (February 21, 2011); and Boeing, “F-15 Silent Eagle,” 2009, at http://www.scribd.com/doc/14321701/Silent-Eagle-Media-Brief-F15 (February 21, 2011).
260 Ted Parsons, “China tests carrier-based J-11B prototype,” Jane’s Defence Weekly, June 2, 2010, p. 16.
261 Kenji Minemura, “Beijing admits it is building an aircraft carrier,” asashi.com, December 17, 2010, at http://www.asashi.com/english/TKY201012160435.html (January 13, 2011); Kenji Minemura, “Island a base for South China Sea push,” asashi.com, January 1, 2011, at http://www.asashi.com/english/TKY201012310144.html (January 13, 2011); Wines and Wong, “China’s Push to Modernize Military Is Bearing Fruit;” Sam Lagrone, “China reveals aircraft carrier ambitions,” Jane’s Defence Weekly, January 5, 2011, p. 5; Reuben F. Johnson, “Russian sold secrets for China’s first carrier,” The Washington Times, February 14, 2011, at http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/feb/14/russian-sold-secrets-for-chinas-first-carrier/ (February 15, 2011).
262 Bradley Perrett, “Chinese Navy Requires Supercruising Fighter,” Aviation Week, April 27, 2009, at http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_channel.jsp?channel=defense&id=news/J10v2-042709.xml&headline=null&prev=10 (February 24, 2011); Bradley Perrett, “Chinese J-20 Logs First Flight,” Aviation Week, January 11, 2011, at http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story.jsp?id=news/awx/2011/01/11/awx_01_11_2011_p0-281508.xml&headline=Chinese%20J-20%20Logs%20First%20Flight&channel=defense (January 12, 2011).
263 Kopp, “The Strategic Impact of China’s J-XX [J-20] Stealth Fighter.”
264 Perrett, “Chinese Navy Requires Supercruising Fighter.”
265 Hunter, Jane’s Aircraft Upgrades 2006-2007, pp. 595-97.
266 Kopp and Goon, “Chengdu J-XX [J-20] Stealth Fighter Prototype: A Preliminary Assessment;” Jackson, Jane’s All the World’s Aircraft 2006-2007, p. 661;  Wertheim, The Naval Institute Guide to Combat Fleets of the World, pp. 890-92.
267 Carlo Kopp and Peter Goon, “Chengdu J-XX [J-20] Stealth Fighter Prototype: A Preliminary Assessment;” Thomas McInerney, “‘Stealth’ Chinese Fighter Jet Photos No Accident.”
268 Yu Miao, “J-20 stealth jet flies onto world stage,” Global Times, January 13, 2011, at http://military.globaltimes.cn/china/2011-01/612041.html (February 24, 2011).
269 Carlo Kopp and Peter Goon, “Chengdu J-XX [J-20] Stealth Fighter Prototype: A Preliminary Assessment.”
270 See Eaglen and Szaszdi, “What Russia’s Stealth Fighter Developments Mean for America.”
271 International Institute for Strategic Studies, Military Balance 2010, pp. 404, 402.
272 RIA Novosti, “Rusia ocupa Segundo lugar en el mercado internacional de cazas polivalentes,” January 25, 2011, at http://sp.rian.ru/Defensa/20110125/148245637.html (January 26, 2011). It is expected that in 2011 Russian military aviation exports, with fighter aircraft featuring prominently, will constitute about 33.4 percent of all Russian defense exports this year. See RIA Novosti, “Rusia se afianzará como segundo exportador mundial de armas en 2011 según experto,” January 7, 2011, at http://sp.rian.ru/Defensa/20110107/148160605.html (January 7, 2011).
273 Thomas McInerney, “‘Stealth’ Chinese Fighter Jet Photos No Accident.”
274 Majumdar, “J-20 a ‘wake-up call,’ former intel chief says.”
275 Majumdar, “J-20 a ‘wake-up call,’ former intel chief says;” Caitlin Harrington Lee, “F-22 line ‘still viable’ amid fears over J-20,” Jane’s Defence Weekly, February 16, 2011, p. 12.
276 Page, “Test Flight Signals Jet Has Reached New Stage;” Malcolm Moore, “Japan should buy F-35 stealth fighters, US says,” The Telegraph, January 12, 2011, at http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/japan/8254675/Japan-should-buy-F-35-stealth-fighters-US-says.html (January 12, 2011).
277 Kopp, “The Strategic Impact of China’s J-XX [J-20] Stealth Fighter;” Streetly, Jane’s Radar and Electronic Warfare Systems 2008-2009, pp.213-14.
278 Martin Streetly, “Northrop Grumman reveals new multi-band SAR,” Jane’s Defence Weekly, February 23, 2011, p. 6.
279 Streetly, Jane’s Radar and Electronic Warfare Systems 2008-2009, p. 209.
280 Kopp, “The Strategic Impact of China’s J-XX [J-20] Stealth Fighter.”
281 Jackson, Jane’s All the World’s Aircraft 2006-2007, p. 838.
282 Kopp, “Assessing the Tikhomirov NIIP L-Band Active Electronically Steered Array;” idem, “The Strategic Impact of China’s J-XX [J-20] Stealth Fighter;” Sweetman, “Low-Cost and Effective AEW Systems Find Buyers;” Jackson, Jane’s All the World’s Aircraft 2006-2007, pp. 667-68.
283 Norman Friedman, The Naval Institute Guide to World Naval Weapon Systems, 5th ed. (Annapolis, Md.: Naval Institute Press, 2006), pp. 317-18; Mackenzie M. Eaglen, “Changing Course on Navy Shipbuilding: Questions Congress Should Ask Before Funding,” Heritage Foundation Backgrounder No. 2193, October 7, 2008, at http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2008/10/Changing-Course-on-Navy-Shipbuilding-Questions-Congress-Should-Ask-Before-Funding (February 28, 2011).
284 See Eaglen and Szaszdi, “What Russia’s Stealth Fighter Developments Mean for America.”
285 RIA Novosti, “Russian space freighter to be ‘buried’ in Pacific,” November 15, 2010, at http://en.rian.ru/science/20101115/161339938.html (November 15, 2010).
286 Chris Mills and Peter Goon, “Navalising the F-22 Raptor: restoring America’s Naval Air Dominance,” Air Power Australia NOTAM, February 23, 2009, at http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-NOTAM-230209-1.html (February 9, 2011); Jay Miller, Lockheed Martin F/A-22 Raptor (Hinckley, U.K.: Aerofax, 2005), pp. 76, 74. 
287 Majumdar, “J-20 a ‘wake-up call,’ former intel chief says.”